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Why the AP called the Arizona Senate race for Mark Kelly

Blake Masters wasn’t posting the numbers of votes he needed in Election Day ballots as they were counted and released days later by officials in Arizona’s biggest county

Meg Kinnard
Friday 11 November 2022 22:37 EST

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Blake Masters wasn't posting the numbers of votes he needed in Election Day ballots as they were counted and released by officials in Arizona's biggest county.

The Republican challenger was significantly outpacing Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly only in a small number of vote batches coming in from Maricopa County; in nearly all other cases, Kelly had a slight or substantial edge.

That’s what led AP to call the race for Kelly after Maricopa County released another batch of 80,000 votes late Friday.

Now elected to his first full term, Kelly has been one of the most successful Democrats to run statewide in Arizona. In 2020, he won a 2020 special election by more than 2 percentage points over Republican incumbent Martha McSally.

There were some Republican activists in Arizona who advocated that voters intentionally wait until Election Day itself to drop off their ballots. Some of this push was based on unfounded theories that fraudsters could manipulate voting systems and rig results for Democrats, once they had seen how many GOP votes had been returned early.

Experts had also warned that such a last-minute crush of ballots could end up creating delays that can ultimately be used by a bad actor to undermine confidence in the election. There were some hang ups this year. About a quarter of voting centers in Maricopa County, Arizona’s most populous, had a printing problem Tuesday, in which marks weren’t showing up correctly when voters showed up to print out their ballots. Officials said the problem was addressed within hours and everyone was able to vote.

In his first run for political office, Masters was endorsed by both former President Donald Trump and former Vice President Mike Pence.

Arizona has a long political history of voting Republican, but changing demographics have made the state friendlier to Democrats.

The AP has not made a call in Arizona's governor's race between Republican Kari Lake and Democrat Katie Hobbs.

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Meg Kinnard can be reached at http://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP

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Check out https://apnews.com/hub/explaining-the-elections to learn more about the issues and factors at play in the 2022 midterm elections.

Follow AP’s coverage of the elections at: https://apnews.com/hub/2022-midterm-elections

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