Impeachment or resignation: What are the chances Andrew Cuomo will leave office?

Accused by multiple former aides of inappropriate behaviour and sexual harassment, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has plummeted from national hero status to embattled politician in a matter of weeks.

He was already under serious pressure before the allegations first emerged thanks to a still-running scandal over his administration’s concealment of Covid-19 death figures in nursing homes – but it was when the dam broke with claims of his verbally and physically harassing women, as well as bullying staff in general, that his political survival began to look threatened.

And as yet another accuser emerges to tell a story of being physically assaulted, top Democrats including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are calling for his resignation, and talk of impeachment is growing louder. So with more than a year and a half to go of his third term, what are the chances Mr Cuomo will have to leave office?

The state’s attorney general, Letitia James, this week announced an investigation into the sexual assault allegations, which will be headed by a former federal prosecutor and an employment lawyer. But many in the New York State Assembly want to go further: that is, they want to see Mr Cuomo impeached. To that end, the assembly has authorised its Judiciary Committee to begin in investigation into the women’s claims, one of which has already been referred to the police.

If it progresses to the next stage, articles of impeachment must be introduced in the New York State Assembly, which must then vote to impeach by a simple majority – that is, 76 members out of 150. And just as happens in the US Congress, the process then proceeds to a trial in the State Senate, where a two-thirds majority is needed to convict. Should the governor be convicted, the lieutenant governor takes their place for the rest of their term.

The only New York governor ever to be impeached was William Sulzer, who made it only 10 months into his term after being elected in 1912. The pretext of his impeachment was an accusation of embezzlement from campaign funds, but historians now view it as a backlash from a corrupt political machine politics that Sulzer first benefited from and then defied.

As things stand, both statehouse chambers are controlled by Democrats by a majority of two-to-one. And while a significant number of Democratic assembly members have already turned against the governor and signalled they would get behind impeachment, plenty of others – and some Republicans – have taken a different tack, saying they support the attorney general’s investigation and “due process” rather than a rush to kick Mr Cuomo out before the allegations have been properly probed.

And even some Republicans – with whom Mr Cuomo has sometimes been resented for working too closely – are backing away from early calls to impeach the governor, also citing due process concerns.

For now, what seems safe to say is that Mr Cuomo has no intention of resigning, insisting as much several times since the allegations gathered steam.

His denials of the allegations have been strong. “I have never done anything like this,” Mr Cuomo told The Independent in one statement. “The details of this report are gut-wrenching. I am not going to speak to the specifics of this or any other allegation given the ongoing review, but I am confident in the result of the attorney general’s report.”

Mr Cuomo has long had a reputation as what some call a “tough” or “headstrong” personality, with many less friendly critics calling him an outright bully.

That accusation has featured in campaigns against him for years – but he has shown no particular interest in trying to shake that image off, and resignation in the face of accusations so far untested in an official investigation is not in his character.

This story has been updated.