Donald Trump: Can he actually win? The states he needs to take to become president

The polls finally open on Tuesday at the end of a historically bruising US election campaign, after both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump made last-gasp efforts to get out their vote.

Speaking on Monday night in Pennsylvania, a key state where she is narrowly expected to win, Ms Clinton was joined by the Obamas and her husband Bill at a rally of 33,000 people - the biggest turnout of her campaign - to say: “We choose to believe in a hopeful, inclusive, big-hearted America.”

In New Hampshire, where polls are also showing a tight race, Mr Trump brought much of his family on stage as he declared: “Tomorrow, the American working class will strike back.”

And as the clock ticked past midnight, the Republican had jetted across to Michigan, a Democrat-leaning state he is hoping to take. Channelling Hollywood, he declared: “Today is our Independence Day.”

So is he right - in the sense he means it - that today could be his day? While the odds are in Ms Clinton’s favour, the polling is sufficiently tight and there are enough states in play to suggest Mr Trump has a path to the White House.

Based on their “safe” states alone - ones they are firmly predicted to win - Ms Clinton undeniably has the lead. That reflects the fact that she has been the favourite in national preference polls throughout almost the whole of the campaign.

Just how much of a lead that gives her, though, depends on which pollster you speak to. But the general consensus is that Mr Trump will have to do very well across almost all the “swing” states - while also keeping hold of every Republican-leaning state - in order to win.

Filling in the “safest” 40 states (plus DC) on the US electoral map gives Ms Clinton 201 electoral college votes - the number of points winning that state counts towards the goal to win of 270 - and Mr Trump 186.

Six other states are considered “ones to watch”, leaning one way or another but with a chance they could be flipped. They include Ohio - looking likely to be a Trump win - and Michigan - leaning Clinton - and when filled in for their respective candidates, they put Ms Clinton on 249 and Mr Trump on 215.

And then there are five states which really will be the bellwethers of this election, states where Real Clear Politics has the gap between the candidates down to fewer than 2 points in the polls.

These are the states Mr Trump has to win if he is to be declared President.

With 29 electoral votes to give, Florida is a must-win for Mr Trump to make up the gap. Ms Clinton could afford to lose Florida and only take a couple of the others and she would still win - though it would be close.

Ms Clinton has been leading state polling averages here for most of the campaign, but it is now really too close to call. An RCP average gives Mr Trump the lead but by just 0.2 percentage points, but early voting has seen a record turnout here in Democrat strongholds.

In 2008 and 2012 it went Democrat, but the result was so close last time out that it was not confirmed until four days later. Polls close here at 8pm EST.

Like New Hampshire, Nevada only has a small number of electoral votes to give - six, in this case. Mr Trump needs this to help bridge the gap, while Ms Clinton can afford to lose here if she picks up New Hampshire and one other.

The two most recent state polls give Ms Clinton a one or two point lead, but an overall RCP average has Nevada as +0.8 for Mr Trump. Either way, these results are comfortably within the margin of error (errors that could result from the way the poll is sampled).

In 2012 New Hampshire voted relatively comfortably in Obama’s favour, by nearly 6 percentage points, and it has polled consistently in favour of Ms Clinton.

Or at least it did until late October, when the state polls here started to dramatically narrow. An average of the polls suggests it is leaning towards Ms Clinton still, but only very, very slightly.

There are only four electoral votes up for grabs here, but with voting closing at 8pm in this eastern state it could give an early indication of how the election is going.

A big state with 15 electoral votes to give, North Carolina is an absolute must-win for Mr Trump.

It voted Romney in 2012 but Obama in 2008, and the two candidates this time round have been swapping leads throughout the campaign in state-wide polls.

Mr Trump is deemed as having a one point lead in an average of the polls here, but plenty of recent surveys have given Ms Clinton the edge.

Voting closes at 7.30pm here but last time out it took more than three hours to declare. If this one goes to Ms Clinton, it is hard to see how Mr Trump can win.

Of the states we’ve highlighted here, Pennsylvania is the one which is leaning the furthest one way or another - in this case, giving Ms Clinton a +1.9 in the polling average.

Mr Trump has never led here since RCP’s poll tracking began in July.

But the final poll released here by Trafalgar Groups - and yes, it is only one poll - gave Mr Trump the edge by a point.

Pennsylvania declared for Obama at around 9.45pm last time out. If it gives its 20 votes to Mr Trump and he also takes Florida, he would need just six more points to win - a Nevada for instance. That would seem very doable if it gets to that point.

Based on the above, if Mr Trump takes the three states where he is marginally in front - Florida, Nevada and North Carolina - he will still fall short of the 270 required to win. If he also flips New Hampshire then, well, it will be a tie, with both candidates on 269 votes each. So he really has to take Pennsylvania too if he is to seal the win. No wonder Ms Clinton has campaigned so hard there.

Mr Trump squeezed in a visit there too on a packed final day of campaigning on Monday. As he surveyed the crowd in Scranton, Pennsylvania, he declared: "It's been a long journey."

He ended his marathon of campaigning with a final rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, where he implored his supporters to get out and vote.

"If we don't win, this will be the single greatest waste of time, energy and money in my life," he told them. "We have to win."

The businessman was aggressive to the end, slamming Ms Clinton as the "face of failure." Having made the new FBI review a centerpiece of his closing case to voters, he argued that the Democrat was being protected by a "totally rigged system."

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"You have one magnificent chance to beat the corrupt system and deliver justice," Mr Trump implored his supporters. "Do not let this opportunity slip away."

Nearly 45 million people had already cast ballots in advance voting by Monday, and Ms Clinton is banking in part on high turnout — particularly among Obama's young, diverse coalition of voters — to carry her over the finish line Tuesday. Roughly half the states with advance voting have reported record turnout, including Florida and Nevada, which have booming Hispanic populations, a possible good sign for the Clinton camp.

Ms Clinton was expected to greet one last crowd in the early hours of Tuesday morning when her campaign plane lands in suburban New York. Both candidates have prepared to stage their victory parties - or commiseration events - in the city.

"We know enough about my opponent, we know who he is," she said as she addressed the mammoth crowd at Philadelphia's Independence Mall on Monday night. "The real question for us is what kind of country we want to be."