The Iowa town that can predict who is going to win the 2020 election

When people seek to forecast an election, they look at the polls, listen to the pundits or else check out the odds being offered by the bookmakers. Or, in the case of a US election, they could ask the people of Iowa’s Bremer County how they are planning to vote.

This county of 25,000 people, 125 miles northeast of the state capital Des Moines, is one of 19 counties across the United States that has voted for every winning president since Ronald Reagan’s first victory in 1980. Their perfect record has seen a Republican placed in the White House six times – 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000, 2004 and 2016 – and a Democrat elected on four occasions: 1992, 1996, 2008 and 2012.

And on the eve of the Iowa caucuses, the nation’s keenly contested, much-watched and deeply influential first vote of the presidential political cycle – an unscientific straw poll in Bremer County – suggested the 2020 race between Donald Trump and the Democrat candidate will be very closely fought.

Six people said they were going to vote Republican, and six said Democrat, with five of the second group tending towards Bernie Sanders. A 13th person, consulted on the way out of town, said they had voted for Mr Trump in 2016 but would not do so this year because of the unpresidential way he had acted. Depending on who the Democrats selected, the person was considering voting for that party for the first time.

The Independent’s visit to the town of Waverly, the county seat with a population of 9,874, came as people in Iowa are desperately searching for clues as to the outcome of Monday night’s caucus, or primary. That process was not helped by a sudden decision by the Des Moines Register not to publish its traditional and highly respected eve-of-caucus poll, amid complaints from the camp of Pete Buttigieg that their candidate’s name was not on the list of read to some of those polled.

“Nothing is more important to the Register and its polling partners than the integrity of the Iowa Poll,” Carol Hunter, the executive editor of the newspaper said. “Therefore, the partners made the difficult decision to not to move forward with releasing the Iowa poll.”

The most recent New York Times poll had Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders tied in Iowa for first place, ahead of Mr Buttigieg. Nationally, the poll put Mr Biden on 27 points, ahead of Mr Sanders on 24, Elizabeth Warren on 14 and Michael Bloomberg on 8.

Iowa is notoriously difficult to poll, largely because of the caucus, or public vote, which takes place over the course of two hours on a freezing Monday and for which you have to show up in person. If you are working in the evening, live a long way from a caucus site, if you are sick, or would rather watch a film, your voting preferences count for nothing.

For all the talk about the caucuses being an amazing experiment in democracy, many critics think it is deeply undemocratic. In 2016, fewer than 16 per cent of those able to vote bothered to take part.

For Democrats, the situation is all the more uncertain this year because of the large number of candidates, and because of anxiety about choosing a candidate who can defeat Mr Trump, whom many here dislike intensely. (Republicans are also holding a caucus, but Mr Trump is sure to defeat the handful of challengers by a landslide.)

Indeed, even at this late stage, many Democrats are undecided who to opt for.

Such was the case with Jennifer Monaghan, 70, who was one of those people interviewed in the Village Square shopping strip. She said Mr Sanders was her first choice, with Ms Warren her second.

“I want the strongest leader to beat Donald Trump,” said Ms Monaghan, a retired veterinary lab technician. “Most people have said they have never seen an election like this.”

Kurt Fay, a 19-year-old on a motorbike, lifted up his vizor to say he would be voting for Mr Trump. “I like capitalism more than socialism. And the economy is strong,” he said.

Kayla Kingery, 29, who was loading groceries into her car, said she had not fully decided, but was veering towards Mr Sanders. “I like him because he is very accepting of everyone,” she said.

Jerod Santee, 37, was certain who he was voting for. “Last time it was Trump, and this time it was Trump.”

Residents said Bremer County was a friendly place, where “everybody knows everybody”.

They said the partly rural county has become something of a bedroom community for the city of Waterloo.

A John Deere tractor factory, along with the University of Northern Iowa, are among the larger employers.

The town of Waverly itself has a Walmart, a municipal golf course and is home to Wartburg College, a private, Lutheran college established in Michigan in 1852 and relocated to Waverly in 1935. The Cedar river cuts through it.

The status of Bremer County as one of the country’s political weathervanes was revealed by the Wall Street Journal, which said analysis suggested the areas had educational attainment levels below the national average, along with slower-than-average population growth between 2010 and 2018. All but one of the counties have median household incomes below the national average and they tend to be older and much less diverse than the nation as a whole, it said.

Gary Buresh, 56, was sitting in Waverly’s McDonald’s as one of his three daughters ran around in the play area. He said the town was neither rich nor poor, but was a representation of a middle class.

He said his family had moved to the town 10 years ago because the schools were good. It was a peaceful place to live, yet near enough to a big city if they needed to hit the shops, he said.

Mr Buresh, a registered Republican, said he had voted for Mr Trump in 2016, mainly because he did not want to vote for Hillary Clinton, whom he said he did not trust. Yet he said he would not be voting for Mr Trump in 2020.

“I do not like the way he has behaved in office. I suspected that he might, but not as much as he has,” he said. “It’s very unprofessional… not the done thing.”

He said he had listened to all the Democrats and liked Mr Buttigieg and Andrew Yang. He thought Mr Sanders’ ideas were too extreme. He also liked Amy Klobuchar and Tom Steyer.

“I would like to vote for someone who thinks we’re all Americans,” he said. “We don’t seem to be able to do so these days.”