‘There’s never been an election like this’: Former head of US election mission raises concerns over voter confidence in 2020

The former head of an international election monitoring organisation has warned that confidence in the US electoral process could be damaged by a combination of the coronavirus and questions over mail-in ballots.

Dame Audrey Glover, a veteran British human rights lawyer who led the 2016 US election mission for the democracy arm of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), said voter confidence was “absolutely essential” for a free and fair election.  

“I don't think there's ever been an election quite like this in the United States in recent memory. And one can’t underestimate what might happen on election day,” she told The Independent.

“There have been a lot of allegations going around that one hasn't heard in the past, and I think this is worrying the confidence of the individual in the whole system,” she said, in reference to questions over the integrity of mail-in ballots.

She added that fears about voting during the coronavirus pandemic would add to the uncertainty, and potentially prevent people from voting.

“This election is very different because you have the virus from the very beginning, which is possibly having a greater effect on the voters and their ability to believe in the integrity of the situation,” she said.

Dame Audrey, who has more than 15 years of experience monitoring elections around the world, is the latest in a long line of experts to raise concerns ahead of November’s crucial vote, which will see Donald Trump face off against former vice president Joe Biden.

In recent months, the president has increased his attack on the integrity of mail-in voting, alleging that they are vulnerable to fraud without providing any evidence to back up his claims. As part of those attacks, Mr Trump blocked funding for the US postal service, which delivers mail-in ballots, to make it more difficult for them to be delivered.

The president has also refused to say whether he would leave the White House if he lost the election, and has preemptively claimed the vote could be rigged against him, without providing any evidence.

These questions about the integrity of the election, combined with the added uncertainty of the coronavirus pandemic, have prompted widespread concerns among election integrity monitors.

Last month, The Independent revealed that the Carter Centre, a democracy promotion organisation founded by former president Jimmy Carter, is to launch its first United States election initiative this year, citing an “erosion” of democracy in the country.

The OSCE’s election monitoring arm, the Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), recently announced it would be sending 500 election monitors to the US for November’s vote.

The ODIHR said the elections will be “the most challenging in recent decades,” primarily due to the coronavirus. A pre-election assessment by the organisation warned that a combination of factors “may decrease the level of trust in election administration, potentially affecting the integrity of election day proceedings, and, as a consequence, the acceptance of the election results.”

The pandemic is expected to lead to a dramatic increase in the number of Americans voting by mail in this year’s presidential election. A recent poll found that around half of voters plan to vote by mail this year, compared to 36 per cent in the last election. The poll found that Democrats are 30 per cent more likely than Republicans to vote by mail.

Some observers have raised concerns that the Trump administration may seek to block the full counting of mail-in ballots if he forms a lead on in-person voting on election day.

The Trump campaign is currently pursuing a number of legal cases in swing states to limit expansions in mail-in voting being sought to make the process safer during the coronavirus.

Dame Audrey, who served as director of the ODIHR between 1994 and 1997, and headed election observations to Georgia, Albania and Ukraine, among others, did not single out the Trump administration specifically, but said uncertainty around the safety of mail-in voting could harm people’s faith in the democratic process.

“Some people because of the virus may want to vote by post, but on the other hand, having heard what they've heard — that they may not be counted — will they bother to vote at all?” she said.

“Elections are for voters to choose who they want to govern them. If they lose confidence in the electoral system which is in place for the election, that would be a blow for democracy in a country which prides itself on being democratic,” she added.

The OSCE refused to discuss specific concerns about the US electoral process ahead of the vote.