How a lead in the polls may influence Biden to choose a ‘simpatico’ VP

Former Vice President Joe Biden’s final days of deliberations over his running mate boil down to a choice between a potential electoral knock-out punch and selecting the most qualified person to take over as president.

After weeks of plummeting poll numbers fuelled by stumbles handling the coronavirus and a hardline response to ongoing protests over perceived racial injustice – and appearing to again stoke racial tensions – Donald Trump got more bad news on Monday morning. He trails Mr Biden 51 per cent to 44 per cent in North Carolina, according to a new survey conducted by NBC News and Marist College.

Mr Trump won the Tar Heel State by 3.6 percentage points in 2016, but the 10.6-point swing, according to the new poll, shows how voters there – like in other swing states – have soured on the president. Mr Biden has similar leads in Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin; the president won all three in 2016. Nationally, the former vice president leads Mr Trump by 9.1 percentage points, according to an average of polls tabulated by RealClearPolitics.

The presumptive Democratic presidential nominee’s national and swing state leads come as he is set this week to announce his running mate. Mr Biden and his top campaign aides are holding their card close as the expected list of finalists continue to audition by stumping for him in television news interviews.

Political observers say the race appears to be his to lose, meaning Mr Biden does not have to select a vice presidential candidate solely along the lines of who might help him the most in a few swing states.

The former VP recently revealed a major part of his own decision-making criteria, saying he intents to choose someone who is “simpatico with me, both in terms of personality as well as substance.”

That suggests Mr Biden, who was a heavily involved No 2 to former President Barack Obama for eight years, is thinking about a governing partner more than someone who could potentially put one of the key swing states securely in his column.

“Biden is in a position where, as the poll leader, he probably doesn’t feel like he needs to use the VP pick to change the trajectory of the election. This may prevent him from making a riskier choice – desperation can lead to risky picks, as Sarah Palin arguably was in 2008,” Kyle Kondik of the University of Virginia Center for Politics said on Monday.

Congresswoman Val Demings would be the running mate most likely to help Mr Biden in a crucial battleground state. She hails from Florida, has a law enforcement background and impressed in her turn as one of the House Democrats that presented their case against Mr Trump in this year’s Senate impeachment trial.

She has vaulted up most prognosticators’ lists to join Mr Biden on the Democratic ticket – and her ability to help him capture her state’s haul of 29 electoral votes is a big reason why.

“I conclude that as of today, given the high level of social unrest, and a Trump administration stressing law and order, that Demings would be very high on the candidacy list, having served as the Orlando police chief,” G William Hoagland, a former aide to then-Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, a Tennessee Republican, said on Monday.

But Marc Hetherington, a political science professor at the University of North Carolina, said he doubts Mr Biden will make his pick based solely on Florida, as important as it is in selecting any president.

“The last time a presidential candidate chose a VP that actually helped him win a toss up state was 1992, when Bill Clinton chose Al Gore. And before that, the races weren’t generally close,” Mr Hetherington said. “Michael Dukakis chose Lloyd Bentsen, but he didn’t win Texas. “I guess John F Kennedy picking Lyndon Johnson to win Texas in 1960 makes them think the VP pick is likely to swing a big state their way. But that was 60 years ago.”

‘On paper’

Analysts expect the 77-year-old Mr Biden to select a woman of colour with whom he believes he can work closely and could take over if something left him unable to perform the duties of the Office of the President.

“Given Biden’s advanced age, he has to choose someone who people see as capable of stepping in at a moment’s notice,” Mr Hetherington said. “The other consideration that I think Biden will take into account is how he meshes personally with the person. He meshed so well with Obama.”

That line of thinking places California Senator Kamala Harris, a former state attorney general, and Susan Rice, Mr Obama’s final national security adviser, at the top of the list.

Ms Harris is the odds-on favorite among many in Washington, as well as outside-the-Beltway political scholars.

“On paper, Harris looks like the perfect pick,” Mr Hetherington said. “But Biden might not like Harris’ very well after her attacks on his record on race from the 1970s.”

Any lingering bad blood from the Democratic primary could open the door for Ms Rice, who was Mr Biden’s West Wing office neighbour during the final years of Mr Obama’s second term. They have known each other for decades, and sources told The Washington Post over the weekend that he trusts and respects her foreign policy knowledge, tenacity and work ethic.

But she bring baggage that Mr Trump no doubt would try to exploit by firing up his conservative base – and trying to plant seeds of doubt in the minds of GOP voters who say they will vote Democratic in November and swayable moderates. She was among a number of Obama administration officials who initially said the attack on a US diplomatic facility in Benghazi, Libya, was merely a protest that got out of hand. Congressional Republicans hammered Mr Obama and his administration over the attack for years, and selecting Ms Rice would drag all of that fracas into the centre of the general election.

What’s more, she has spent most of her career as a government policy official and has never sought elected office. That could lead to mistakes on the campaign trail and give Mr Trump fodder to attack her.

One former Democratic official was asked whether Mr Biden’s lead in the polls might give him a possibly false sense of security that could lead him to choose his former West Wing neighbour, Ms Rice. “Lord,” the official replied, “I hope not.”