2020 election: Democrat Steve Bullock leading in pivotal Montana Senate race, poll says

Montana Democratic Governor Steve Bullock is leading Republican Senator Steve Daines, according to a new poll, in the pivotal 2020 Senate race there that could decide whether Majority Leader Mitch McConnell retains that title.

Mr Bullock, who briefly ran for the 2020 Democratic presidential nod as a moderate alternative to more liberal high-profile candidates, led Mr Daines by 7 percentage points in an online poll conducted by Montana State University in April. Mr Bullock's lead fell just within the poll's margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.

Of the 738 likely voters in Montana who submitted to the poll between 10 and 27 April, 46 per cent said they'd choose Bullock, compared to 39 per cent who said they'd choose Daines.

While the poll is certainly welcome news for Democrats — who need to net four Senate seats or three Senate seats plus the White House in the 2020 cycle to take back a chamber majority — experts generally agree that online polls are generally less predictable than live interview polls conducted via telephone.

“I think it’s certainly reasonable to assume that the race is probably within the margin of error and too close to call,” MSU political science department chairman David Parker told the Helena, Montana-based MTN News. “While we show a lead [for Bullock], it’s within the margin of error, so I would say, yeah, this is a competitive Senate race.”

Elections handicappers still give Mr Daines a slight edge over Mr Bullock, with the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales both rating the race Leans Republican.

But four of the five most vulnerable incumbent senators up for re-election this cycle are Republicans, according to Inside Elections.

While the elections analysis website currently rates Alabama Democratic Senator Doug Jones' seat Leans Republican, GOP Senators Susan Collins of Maine, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, and Martha McSally of Arizona are all in races rated as tossups, and Republican Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado's seat is rated Tilts Democratic.

Mr Bullock raised nearly $3.4m in the first three weeks of his campaign from 9 March to 31 March, according to his first-quarter filing with the Federal Election Commission.

That's more than Mr Daines raised in the entire first quarter, though the first-term Republican still has a roughly $2.5m cash-on-hand advantage, according to the FEC's database for the race.

Montana is one of the most politically peculiar states in the US, with a Democratic governor (Mr Bullock), a sole at-large Republican House member (Greg Gianforte), one Republican senator (Mr Daines), and one Democratic senator (Jon Tester).

Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton there in the 2016 election by more than 20 percentage points, but just two years later Mr Tester held onto his seat by 3.5 points.

Many governors from both parties have seen a boost in their overall approval ratings since the coronavirus pandemic arrived on US shores, and Mr Bullock is no different.

Seventy per cent of respondents to the MSU poll said they approved of his response to the crisis, compared to 48 per cent who approved of Mr Daines' response.