2020 election: Voters in battleground states driving huge early turnout

A week before Election Day, more than 60 million Americans have already voted — and about half of them are in the dozen or so competitive states that will ultimately decide who wins the Electoral College. 

Possibly even more significant, early votes in these battlegrounds account for more than half of those states’ total votes in 2016. In those states, votes so far are 54 per cent of the total 2016 turnout. That number is 40 per cent in Democratic strongholds and 32 per cent in Republican ones.

Nationally, voters have already cast about 45 per cent of the total vote counted in 2016, according to the US Elections Project.

Because of the coronavirus pandemic, many states have changed voting rules, allowing millions to vote by mail for the first time, and many others have voted in person early to avoid an anticipated crush of voters on Election Day. Voter enthusiasm for and against Donald Trump has also fuelled record-level early turnout across the country.

Democrats appear much more eager about early voting. In the five battleground states that report party registration, nearly 2 million more registered Democrats have voted than Republicans so far. In Pennsylvania — a state Mr Trump narrowly won in 2016 — more than three times as many Democrats have voted than Republicans. The party breakdown is more even in Florida and North Carolina.

Battleground states

Early votes in populous Texas, which leans Republican but is considered competitive this year because of its growing populations of people of colour, have already surpassed 80 per cent of the state’s 2016 total turnout. And voters in Florida, North Carolina and Georgia account for more than 60 per cent of the total ballots that were cast in those states four years ago.

Likely Biden wins

Voters are also turning out in large numbers in states that are more likely to favour Joe Biden. These states together account for more than a third of the votes cast so far. With early voting just getting started in some states, like New York, these numbers are likely to climb.

Likely Trump wins

Early voting has been less extensive in states that are more likely to favour Mr Trump. These states tend to be less populous than many of the Democratic-leaning and battleground states, so it’s not surprising that they make up a smaller share of total early votes. 

But their early votes are also smaller as a percentage of the number of people who voted four years ago. Mr Trump, who has railed against mail voting, is counting on a “red wave” of in-person voting on 3 November to overcome what appears to be an early voting advantage for Democrats.

The New York Times