New York puts its best foot forward. Then disaster strikes

Suddenly, the Hawaiian Elvis, the cowboys with their lassoes and the wax figure of President George Bush seemed ridiculously out of place. One moment they were there to bolster the flagging American tourist industry, the next they were just a waste of space.

The United States had been putting its best foot forward at the world's biggest travel business exhibition, a demonstration that although battered, the country was not beaten. The message had been one of slow recovery in the face of terrorist threats and anthrax mailshots. Come to America – better still, the Big Apple – and you'll still have a great time.

Then disaster struck. All at once the Americans found themselves strangely juxtaposing the words "hope" and "crash". "We hope," they said, "it was just an ordinary crash. If it wasn't, we're finished."

It was a measure of how much the world has changed since 11 September that a simple mechanical failure that caused the deaths of so many people could be regarded as the lesser of two evils, but at the World Travel Market exhibition at Earls Court in west London yesterday, the difference was crucial to an industry in which some 200,000 jobs have already been lost.

Even before yesterday's crash, the US Commerce Department had forecast a drop of 700,000 visitors from the United Kingdom this year. The figure internationally is expected to be about five million. In New York City, hotel business is already 6 per cent down, following a 10 per cent increase last year.

Conservative estimates suggest hotels in downtown New York are losing $10m (£7m) a day, restaurants at least $15m a week and theatres so much that five Broadway shows have been forced to close.

"If this turns out to be terrorism, we can all just start organising walking tours and coach excursions because no one is going to be flying into New York," said Celyta Jackson, a promoter of tourism for New York City. "There are just no words for this. If it's terrorism, New York City will suddenly become very, very American. We've always thought of ourselves not really as part of America, but as the capital of the world. If this is terrorism and it puts more people off flying in, we'll just have American visitors. If it isn't, then I think we can ride it out. I just hope it was an accident."

The number of British tourists travelling to America is already down 13 per cent, compared with a 25 per cent drop in German visitors and 21 per cent of Japanese, which represents about 1m people.

"The Japanese are a big problem for us because they represent the highest number after the British," said Ms Jackson. "The problem is on several fronts. First, they are concerned about the anthrax because they have suffered a terrible chemical attack themselves; second, they are very timid over security; and, third, they are a very respectful people and they think it would be disrespectful to come to New York and have a good time while we're all grieving."

After yesterday's crash, that grieving process is likely to continue, resulting in even fewer Japanese travelling to America. And if it turns out to be terrorist-related, there will be fewer visitors still from all parts of the globe.

"If that happens, you can expect to see even more shows closing on Broadway," said Janette Roush, internet marketing manager for Theatre Direct International, which organises theatre trips for tour operators. "Some are doing well and will continue to scrape by – like Mamma Mia!, Phantom of the Opera and Aida. But if this is terrorism, some that are only just surviving now, like Les Miserables, Rent and The Music Man, are likely to close."

In the cathedral-like space of Earls Court, there was much comforting going on among the Americans, but there did not appear to be many tears. It was as if they were all cried out. Instead, the feeling was one of continued sadness.

"I know it's terribly selfish, and I feel awful for the families of those who died, but I am just hoping that this was a mechanical fault," said Shelia D'Olimpio of the US travel company Tourco. "That can happen anywhere in the world, so it might not make things worse for us. So many people rely for a living on the tourism industry. I hate to describe it as the lesser of two evils, but I can definitely say that if terrorists did this, then that is clearly the greater of two evils."