Some New York neighbourhoods may have 68% coronavirus immunity

New data from clinics in New York City shows that some neighbourhoods may have already achieved remarkably high levels of immunity to the coronavirus, with as many as two-thirds of antibody tests coming back positive.

However, the results appear to be wildly uneven across the city, and neighbourhoods less affected by the city’s devastating spring outbreak may now be the most vulnerable if a new surge in infections begins.

The data, shared with the New York Times by healthcare company CityMD, indicate that clinics in two neighbourhoods – Corona and Jackson Heights, both in Queens – have seen the majority of antibody tests come back positive, with 68 per cent and 56 per cent respectively. Meanwhile, some wealthier neighbourhoods are seeing positivity rates as low as 13 per cent.

The disparity across different New York neighbourhoods appears to track the way the virus affected different communities, with poorer communities and people of colour far more likely to be badly hit than affluent white neighbourhoods.

If antibodies do indeed provide immunity, wealthy neighbourhoods that so far have a low infection rate may be the most at risk should a so-called “second wave” of the outbreak arise later this year.

There are, however, some caveats to bear in mind while reading the data. The people coming forward to get tested are still more likely to have been infected than others, meaning that the rate across their neighbourhoods is almost certainly lower than the testing sample would indicate – though just how much lower remains unclear.

And while numerous candidate vaccines are now undergoing human trials around the world, it is not yet fully understood to what degree people with antibodies are in fact immune, or how long any immunity they develop will last.

Depending on how the immune system responds, it may be the case that people who have contracted the coronavirus will not become sick again, but they may still be able to pass the virus on.

However, the sheer amount of research underway around the world means the scientific community’s understanding on the virus and the human body’s response to it is developing rapidly. And while testing does not give a perfect picture of how the virus has spread in any particular area, the number of people who’ve been tested is rising rapidly.

New York has faced a dramatically worse outbreak than any other state so far, with more than 400,000 cases and 31,979 deaths – 22,719 of which were recorded in New York City.

However, the outbreak’s spring peak has been brought down; the number of cases recorded each day has flatlined, and the state has not had a day with more than 100 deaths since the end of May.

At a press conference this week, governor Andrew Cuomo laid out New York’s latest measures to keep the coronavirus infection rate from rising again. Along with explaining what his state is doing, Mr Cuomo pointed out bluntly that New York’s experience should have been instructive to the rest of the country – and that the importance of testing should be obvious.

“New York has proven what works. There’s no theory here. This is 19 million people. We had the worst situation on the globe. And we took certain steps, and we know what works, because it has been proven in the laboratory called New York, and you cannot deny the results.

“Testing worked. How did we get into a situation where these other states don’t have testing in place? It’s been seven months!”