Moments of truth on America's longest night

In Nashville, Tennessee, and Austin, Texas, neither Al Gore nor George W Bush and their top aides publicly entertained even the remotest possibility of defeat. But as election day turned into cliffhanging election night, both camps frantically sifted turn-out figures and exit polls, and then the first fragmentary results themselves, seeking the clue that would prove that ultimate victory would be theirs - or grim confirmation the intended celebration would end up as a wake.

In Nashville, Tennessee, and Austin, Texas, neither Al Gore nor George W Bush and their top aides publicly entertained even the remotest possibility of defeat. But as election day turned into cliffhanging election night, both camps frantically sifted turn-out figures and exit polls, and then the first fragmentary results themselves, seeking the clue that would prove that ultimate victory would be theirs - or grim confirmation the intended celebration would end up as a wake.

As each man watched the clock nervously, Mr Gore and Mr Bush understood that from the moment midnight struck - 7pm Eastern Standard Time in the US - their political destiny would begin to take shape. (All times are in GMT.)

Florida, the first battleground state to close its voting, was the most hard-fought prize of the contest. With 25 electoral college votes, its importance to both candidates was obvious. It should have been a sure thing for Mr Bush, whose affable brother, Jeb, is the state Governor. Instead, the presidential, Senate and House of Representatives contests had all been locked in a virtual dead heat.

Florida's mixture of northern urban migrants, indigenous rural population and a large Hispanic, mainly Cuban, contingent in the south, was a constituency Mr Bush could not afford to ignore. But the Democrats ran a strong campaign, capitalising on the fears of the state's large elderly population about Mr Bush's plans for social security reform.

Midnight was also the moment of truth for the candidates in the north-east of the country. New Hampshire and Vermont were the first of the slightly unpredictable New England states to stop voting. Quirky, with a tradition of free-thinking, the recent influx of new voters from Boston into southern New Hampshire and alternative lifestylers into neighbouring Maine had boosted the Democratic vote. Vermont, overwhelmingly Democrat, remains divided over the recent legalisation of gay marriage. The three states have 11 electoral college votes combined which, in a tight contest, could easily have swung the vote.

Just half an hour later, polls closed in Ohio, an economically varied state often regarded as a microcosm of the nation. Ohio's big regional centres - Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus - contrast with its rich farmland in a cross-section of middle-America. For the candidates, aware of the fact that Ohio has picked every winner since 1948 - with the exception of John F Kennedy - the psychological importance of an edge in the exit polls here should not be underestimated. It was a "must-win" for Bush, who had a narrow eve of poll lead. The Texas Governor knew that no Republican had ever won the White House without taking Ohio and its 21 electoral college votes.

By 1am, the picture was starting to take shape. Like Ohio, Michigan is a finely balanced northern-tier state with a sizeable rural population, and manufacturing concentrated around Detroit in the south-east. Michigan is another bellwether state, which includes the much-studied Macomb county, where Reagan in 1980 and Clinton in 1992 benefited from an important swing.

Missouri, with 11 electoral college votes, was one of the handful of toss-up midwestern states crucial to the outcome of the presidential race, also closed its polling at 1am. In the final days, Mr Bush had edged in front, but the picture remained confused by the death on 15 October of the popular Democratic Governor, Mel Carnahan, who was locked in a tight Senate race with the incumbent, John Ashcroft. Mr Carnahan's name was still on the ballot yesterday; his widow Jean had declared she would take his seat if he won.

Placed after Florida in its importance to Mr Gore's prospects (23 college votes), Pennsylvania was closely fought throughout the campaign. Its large percentage of elderly voters and blacks ought to have favoured the Democrats, but Mr Bush was strong in the more rural western part of the state. Mr Gore needed a plurality of 300,000 votes in urban Philadelphia to be sure of winning.

As the polls closed in Al Gore's home state of Tennessee at 1am and Bill Clinton's Arkansas an hour later, the Vice-President faced what was potentially his biggest humiliation. Despite heroic efforts by Mr Clinton and Mr Gore in the past two weeks to get out their home voters, either state or both could have moved into the Republican column this year. In that event, Mr Gore would be the first presidential candidate since George McGovern to lose his home state; the loss of Arkansas for Clinton would be both a symbolic rejection and an emotional wrench.

Texas, the third-biggest prize in the country, was universally considered a wrap for Mr Bush, the state governor. Observers felt it could be the one big state in the union to show a crushing margin of victory. With Mr Gore struggling in Tennessee, the Texas result was set to be a psychological boost for the Bush camp, even if its 32 electoral college votes could be taken for granted.

At 2am, Mr Gore and Mr Bush were focusing on Minnesota, a midwestern state with a strong tradition of independent third parties - and 10 college votes. One of the few states with a galvanised youth vote, it unexpectedly elected ex-wrestler Jesse Ventura as state Governor in 1998 against two staunchly establishment candidates. Ralph Nader and the Green Party ran strongly here and was likely to take up to 10 per cent of the vote, posing a threat to the expected Gore majority.

The Empire State consistently showed a double-digit lead for Al Gore and was the bedrock of his support. Neither party, therefore, had bothered to spend much money on the state and its 33 electoral college votes.

Wisconsin, another 2am poll close, is split geographically and politically between rich farmland and heavy industry with a tradition of cross-party co-operation and pioneering social reform. But the combination of a strong environmental movement eroding the Gore vote and the arrival of hi-tech industry in the north of the state was reckoned to be pushing Wisconsin (11 votes) into the Bush camp.

Throughout the campaign, the Bush camp insisted that California, with the most electoral college votes in the US (54), was within its reach. At 4am, the moment of truth arrived. The latest publicly available opinion polls put Mr Gore between five and seven points ahead; if he did lose here, it probably meant he had already lost, and badly, in the rest of the country. The Democrats, meanwhile, were hoping to pick up as many as four House seats and defend a fifth.

The big issue in the north-western states of Washington and Oregon - also closing at 4am - was the Nader factor. Did the Green Party candidate rain on Al Gore's parade, or did the Naderites swing Democrat to avert a Bush victory? Mr Bush's chances looked stronger in Oregon; in both states, he was buoyed by conservative populations in the suburbs and in the east.

In Washington, a close Senate race pitted the veteran Republican power-broker Slade Gorton against a much younger, self-financed internet entrepreneur called Maria Cantwell. A high Nader turn-out could have helped Ms Cantwell, as there was no Green candidate for the Senate. Washington has 11 electoral college votes, Oregon has seven.