US homicide rates drop at record pace in 2023

Major cities across the United States are expected to report significant drops in murder rates this past year to numbers not seen since before the pandemic, indicating violent crime is not as prevalent in the country as some believe.

According to data from cities and towns across the country, compiled by AH Datalytics, murder rates this year had one of the fastest rates of decline on record at approximately 12.8 per cent.

“Americans tend to think that crime is rising, but the evidence we have right now points to sizable declines this year (even if there are always outliers),” Jeff Asher, the co-founder of AH Datalytics said in a Substack post.

Cities often thought of as dangerous – Philadelphia, Chicago, New York, Baltimore, St Louis, San Francisco and more saw a sharp reduction in murder rates.

Quarterly data from the FBI reflects similar numbers, showing cities with populations ranging from less than 10,000 to more than one million all saw drops in homicide.

“The quarterly data in particular suggests 2023 feature one of the lowest rates of violent crime in the United States in more than 50 years,” Mr Asher said.

The new data indicates the prevention efforts many cities are implementing to deter violent crime are working effectively.

Detroit recorded the second-lowest number of homicides since 1966 after putting together a coalition to reduce a backlog of felony gun cases, increase law enforcement staffing, and increase accountability on felony warrants, probation, parole and more.

“We are seeing record drops in gun violence in Detroit because every single part of the criminal justice system is getting past Covid obstacles and is now working again,” Mayor Mike Duggan said in a statement.

In Philadelphia, where homicides reached a 10-year record high in 2021, rates fell nearly 25 per cent this past year.

The city’s Interim Commissioner John Stanford told 6ABC that the police department had redeployed personnel from administrative positions to the streets to help police districts with high levels of violent crime.

St Louis, New Orleans, Baltimore, Atlanta and Portland all recorded more than a 20 per cent drop in murder rates this year. Major metropolitans like New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami and Charlotte saw a homicide decrease of at least 11 per cent this year.

But despite the numbers, approximately 63 per cent of Americans perceive crime rates to be increasing nationally and locally, according to polling from Gallup.

Though rates are significantly down, the prevalence of murder is higher in 2023 than it was before the pandemic – but not by much according to Mr Asher.

The US saw an increase in homicides between 2020 and 2021 which could be attributed to an increase in firearm sales as well as pauses and delays in law enforcement interference due to pandemic restrictions.

Slowly but surely, those rates are falling along with violent crime rates in general.

“These trends hopefully will be recognized as the positive developments that they are,” Mr Asher wrote.

“In other words, tell your friends and family because they probably think crime is surging nationally. And in this case, they’re almost certainly wrong.”