Five things Republican hopefuls hope will happen at tonight's GOP debate

If you thought the Republican presidential race couldn’t get more gaudy and preposterous, think again: tonight’s GOP debate – the last of 2015 – is being held in Las Vegas. As the candidates take the stage at the Venetian, an ersatz Italian hotel-casino at the heart of the Vegas Strip, they will all be trying to prove once again that they are the real thing.

Whether they want a no-fly zone in Syria (Jeb Bush), or to ban all Muslims from entering the US (Donald Trump), this is the first debate since the recent terror attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, and most candidates will come hoping to dominate a serious, substantive discussion about national security. While his rivals have called Trump’s suggestion “outrageous” (John Kasich) and “a violation of our Constitution” (Carly Fiorina), an ABC News/Washington Post poll found 59 per cent of Republican voters support the “Ban Muslims” strategy. Meanwhile Senator Marco Rubio was among the candidates who this week rolled out videos touting their tough attitude to foreign policy. Rubio described the conflict with Isis as a “clash of civilisations”, adding: “Either they win or we win.”

Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who supports a moratorium on Syrian refugees entering the US, instead chose to preview his debate performance with a Star Wars-themed video, featuring voiceover narration from The Force Awakens, over images of Cruz on the campaign trail. He could be forgiven for feeling light-hearted, after surging to second place in national polls and first place in the crucial primary state of Iowa. At this debate, Cruz will be hoping to cement his status as the sensible, anti-establishment alternative to Trump, who remains the frontrunner.

it’s fair to say that the establishment does despise Ted Cruz, whom most Washington Republicans consider extremist, obstructionist and, frankly, a little obnoxious. But if he’s the one to finally topple Trump, then they may have to learn to love him. Trump’s reckless pronouncements scare the party leadership, as do his supporters, one of whom yelled “Seig Heil” at a Black Lives Matter protester who was being removed from a Trump rally this week. Top GOP officials recently met to discuss the possibility of a brokered party convention in 2016, which some observers saw as a strategy to prevent Trump winning the nomination. The party surely hopes to see the reality TV real estate mogul torn down on the debate stage instead. But Vegas is home turf for The Donald, whose own 64-storey hotel is less than half a mile from the Venetian, with his name in gold at the top.

Establishment ties

Trump’s rise has been most dismaying for the old-fashioned candidates who probably expected to be duking it out for the lead by now: men like Jeb Bush, John Kasich and Chris Christie. So far, however, none of them has managed to impose themselves on the race, despite Bush’s massive war-chest, Kasich’s chunky resume and Christie’s punchy debate performances. But if they can’t put a serious dent in Trump tonight, there may be another way. Rubio, whom pundits have now picked as the most plausible flag-bearer for the establishment, has proved decidedly lax at campaigning in early primary states such as New Hampshire, where Christie in particular appears to be gaining ground in the polls. A strong showing in the Granite State in February could put any of these candidates back in the game, and they’ll be hoping a strong showing tonight might just impress a few crucial New Hampshire voters.

Although one more debate remains before the first primaries in February, for several candidates in this crowded Republican field, Las Vegas is surely the final roll of the dice. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal has exited the race since the last debate, leaving room for Mike Huckabee to drop down onto the undercard alongside Lindsey Graham, Rick Santorum and George Pataki. While Graham in particular has been spirited in previous so-called “kids’ table” debates, these men are only kidding themselves. They can hope all they want to, but they haven’t a hope in hell.