Drama as Kerry emerges as big winner in Iowa

Senator John Kerry rode an 11th-hour surge to victory in the Iowa presidential caucuses, dealing a stunning blow to front-runner Howard Dean in the race to choose the Democratic nominee to run against President George Bush.

Sen. Kerry's comeback blew the contest wide open, setting the stage for a free-for-all in next week's New Hampshire's primary.

Sen. John Edwards came in second. Sen. Dean, the former governor of Vermont, finished third, stripped of his front-runner's mantle and humbled althopugh adamant that "We're still alive."

Representative Dick Gephardt finished a weak fourth and planned to end his 33-year political career by pulling out of the race today, which would reduce the field of Democratic candidates to seven.

Sen. Kerry secured 38 per cent of the votes, Sen. Edwards 32 per cent, Sen. Dean 18 per cent and Rep. Gephardt 11 per cent. Long-shot candidate Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio won one per cent.

Sen. Kerry, whose campaign was given up for dead just weeks ago, predicted another comeback in New Hampshire's 27 January primary, where Sen. Dean's once-commanding lead in the opinion polls has been shrinking.

"As I've said in New Hampshire and here, I'm a fighter," the four-term Massachusetts senator and Vietnam War veteran told The Associated Press. "I've come from behind before and I'm going to take the same fight that I've been making here to New Hampshire."

Sen. Edwards, aged 50, also claimed momentum. "This campaign, this cause, this movement is about bringing real change to America," the North Carolina senator told supporters.

Caucuses are a series of precinct meetings across the state, held mostly in public buildings but also in churches and community centres, where local party members choose delegates for the party's national convention this summer. The delegates in turn choose the party's presidential nominee.

Two other candidates, former General Wesley Clark and Sen. Joe Lieberman, skipped the Iowa contest to focus on the New Hampshire primary.

Just two weeks ago, before the Iowa race turned testy and tumultuous, Sen. Dean and Rep. Gephardt led the field in Iowa, with Sen. Dean leading in New Hampshire and national polls. Mr Kerry and Mr Edwards turned that on its head, closing their campaigns with positive, forward-looking messages while Mr Dean and Mr Gephardt bickered over past votes and quotes.

The stunning results swelled the ranks of candidates with money and momentum, raising the prospect of a nomination fight that will go longer and get nastier than party officials had envisioned. Mr Kerry has plenty of his own money while Mr Dean, Mr Edwards and Gen. Clark have raised millions.

"My campaign to fight for working people may be ending tonight, but our fight will never end," Mr Gephardt said in a post-caucus speech that sounded like a political farewell.

Mr Dean tried hard to reset expectations. "If you would have told us a year ago we would come third in Iowa, we would have taken anything for that," he yelled and later ticked off the primary states beyond New Hampshire. Mr Dean said he called Mr Kerry and Mr Edwards and told them, "I'll see you around the corner, around the block, starting tomorrow."

But the new day will bring new challenges for Mr Dean. His vaunted Internet-driven organisation, which helped him raise more than $40 million and dispatch 3,500 volunteers to Iowa, didn't deliver. His anti-war, anti-establishment message didn't resonate.

A string of endorsements — Al Gore, Bill Bradley, two major unions and Iowa Senator Tom Harkin — and, at the end, kind words from former President Jimmy Carter didn't help, and may have undermined his antiestablishment message.

Mr Dean searched for solace in a third-place finish. "There will be a lot less incoming flak, that's for sure," he told The Associated Press.

Gen.Clark, who rose in New Hampshire polls while Dean slipped in Iowa, turned his sights on Mr Kerry, aged 60, a decorated Vietnam War veteran.

"He's got military background, but nobody in this race has got the kind of background I've got," said the retired four-star general. "It's one thing to be a hero as a junior officer. He's done that. I respect that ... but I've got the military experience at the top as well as at the bottom."

Kerry aides predicted a negative New Hampshire race, and said they were prepared to fight blow-for-blow. The senator himself borrowed a 12-year-old line from Bill Clinton, who survived scandal to finish second in New Hampshire and pronounced himself the "Comeback Kid."

"I want to thank Iowa for making me the 'comeback Kerry,"' the victor said.

A survey of voters showed late-deciders turned away from the mistake-prone Dean, and his signature position in opposition to the Iraq war did not seem to resonate. The anti-war vote split instead of rallying around Dean.

More than a third picked a candidate in the last week and Mr Kerry got the support of four in 10 of the late deciders.

The survey showed Mr Kerry got an especially strong boost from voters who said the "right experience" was the most important candidate quality — a theme the four-term senator pounded home in the race's final days.

He won because he did well among older voters, men, independents and moderates, while he was competitive among other groups like liberals, who made up six in 10 voters, and those who strongly disapproved of the war with Iraq.

In their caucuses, local Democrats elect county convention delegates, reflecting their presidential preferences, then discuss platform issues and elect precinct leaders. The process favours candidates with broad organisations that reach into each of the state's 99 counties.

After Iowa and New Hampshire, Democrats turn their attention to an unprecedented rush of primaries starting 3 February with South Carolina, New Mexico, Arizona, Oklahoma, Missouri, Delaware and North Dakota. Democratic leaders designed the front-loaded calendar in hopes of having a presumptive nominee by mid-March.

Most candidates see Iowa as a tempting jumping-off point.

Jimmy Carter was a little-known Georgia governor when his 1976 Iowa campaign catapulted him onto the national scene and put the caucuses on the political map.

Since then, Iowa has been an important but often unreliable barometer of presidential mettle.