US coronavirus deaths projection doubles - predicting more than 134,000 fatalities

More than twice as many people in the US may die of coronavirus, according to a new model that is frequently used by the White House, as health officials revise projections amid fears recently relaxed quarantine measures and expired stay-at-home orders could extend the epidemic in many states through the summer.

The University of Washington‘s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projects 134,475 US deaths, with a range of 95,092 to 242,890, up to early August, based on a report released on 4 May.

Its report follows a similar projection from federal officials, first obtained by The New York Times, showing a daily death toll increase from Covid-19 to as many as 3,000 per day by 1 June.

The White House has disputed the findings, claiming that the report has not been vetted by the coronavirus task force and is “not reflective of any of the modelling done by the task force or data that the task force has analysed”.

But the sharp rise in the projected death toll in both reports reflects what health officials have feared as the country looks to “reopen” local economies in the middle of the public health crisis.

IHME attributes the doublings of its numbers to the ”rising mobility in most US states as well as the easing of social distancing measures” within the next few weeks.

“Growing contacts among people will promote transmission of the coronavirus,” the university said. “Increases in testing and contact tracing, along with warming seasonal temperatures – factors that could help slow transmission – do not offset rising mobility, thereby fuelling a significant increase in projected deaths.”

IHME director Christopher Murray said that the “evolution of the epidemic” relies on the balance within each state of its social distancing efforts along with warming weather, testing rates and contact tracing efforts.

“We expect that the epidemic in many states will now extend through the summer,” he said.

In March, the university’s model initially estimated fewer than 161,000 total deaths in the US. That figure was revised in early April to more than 60,000, with a range as high as 126,000.

More than 68,000 people in the US have died from Covid-19-related illness, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Nearly 1.2 million cases of the virus have been identified in the US as of 4 May, accounting for roughly one-third of all global cases.

The latest IHME forecast follows new modelling that ”captures the impact of changes in social distancing mandates, changes in mobility, and the impact of testing and contact tracing” and ”enables predicting a resurgence if and when more social distancing mandates are relaxed”.

Mr Murray said the model “is the basis for the sobering new estimate of US deaths”.