Can Biden and Xi get the US-China relationship back on track?

Joe Biden and Xi Jinping certainly have plenty to talk about – and in San Francisco they have at least a few hours to do so. The meeting between the two – during a summit of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum – is the first in a year, and Xi’s first trip to the US since former president Donald Trump said they spoke over the “most beautiful piece of chocolate cake that you’ve ever seen” at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home in 2017.

Relations between the two superpowers have dropped since then, and Trump wasn’t exactly known for being quiet when it came to the issue of China, and so this discussion will be more about breathing life into lines of communication that have fallen fallow. Ties plunged to a new low last August, when Beijing cut off major communication channels with Washington in retaliation for a high-level US visit to Taiwan by then US House speaker Nancy Pelosi. That was exacerbated by a controversy in February over a suspected Chinese spy balloon that made its way across the continental US. And which Biden ordered to be shot down.

Restoring military communication will be a big Biden aim, to avoid the type of miscommunication or miscalculation US officials fear could lead to open conflict. Biden said ahead of his departure for California that he would define success for the sit-down as getting back on a “normal course”. He said that included “corresponding, being able to pick up the phone and talk to one another if there’s a crisis, being able to make sure that our militaries still have contact with one another”.

US officials have spent months seeking to engage Xi, including sending four cabinet-level officials to Beijing in the summer. China has played it relatively cool. When foreign minister Wang Yi visited Washington last month, he said that “the ‘road to San Francisco’ will not be a smooth one”.

The meeting, which is due to be around four hours, is expected to cover global issues from the conflict in the Middle East to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, North Korea’s ties with Russia, Taiwan, human rights, artificial intelligence, as well as “fair” trade and economic relations.

Biden is set to tell Xi that the US remains committed to standing with its allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific, in the face of Chinese pressure against democratically governed Taiwan, which China claims as its own, and in the South and East China Seas. He will also express a specific commitment to the security of the Philippines, US officials have said. It is Taiwan that is the issue that causes the most friction.

With elections in Taiwan in early 2024, political analysts expect China to seek US assurances that it will do nothing to encourage pro-independence elements, while Xi will also be hoping to persuade Biden to ease up on tariffs and the export controls that aim to keep the most advanced semiconductors from being sent to China.

But Biden is clearly banking on a personal relationship he has cultivated for more than a decade, having been Barack Obama’s vice-president. Biden and Xi have shared hours of conversation in six interactions since Biden’s January 2021 inauguration, but have only met in person once since then, on the sidelines of an international summit in Bali, Indonesia, a year ago.

Xi and Biden are expected to meet far from the APEC conference location – at the Filoli estate, miles outside of San Francisco, which has seemingly been carefully chosen for its security, serenity and remoteness.

There were positive signs before the meeting, Both countries have pledged to work together more closely to fight global heating, declaring the climate crisis “one of the greatest challenges of our time” and they will work to reduce methane and plastic pollution, a renewal of climate cooperation suspended after the Taiwan trip by Pelosi. And there have been reports that the two leaders are set to announce an agreement for China to crack down on the manufacture and export of fentanyl, with the US facing a synthetic drug epidemic.

Biden is coming into the talks on trade and the economy in a relatively strong position, given the strength of the US economy; Xi meanwhile is dealing with a sluggish Chinese economy. In a separate dinner with business leaders, the Chinese president will be looking to boost flagging investment by US firms in China.

There is much to talk about then. If this meeting sets the stage for future discussions, then both sides will probably consider it a success.