‘People want change’: Ugandan diaspora speaks out ahead of presidential election

Yoweri Museveni has held sway over Uganda since January 1986, when Bobi Wine, his main opponent in Thursday’s presidential election, was just 3 years-old.

The contest between the two is certainly as uneven as their age difference is wide. Mr Museveni, who seeks a sixth term in office, controls all the levers of power, meaning musician-turned-politician Mr Wine and his supporters have been subjected to intimidation, violence and arbitrary arrest in the run-up to the vote.

The starkest example of the state’s action against the opposition came during pro-Wine protests held between 18 and 20 November. Over these three days, more than 50 people were killed by the country’s security forces, according to the UN.

Then in December, Mr Wine, who has been arrested multiple times on the campaign trail, said his car was shot at and, in a separate incident, that one of his bodyguards was “deliberately” run over and killed by a military police truck.  The authorities have denied this version of events. 

Kizza Besigye, who ran against Mr Museveni in four elections, said the terror in the build up to this election is “unprecedented”, adding that “it gets worse and worse by the day”.

Ugandans travelling to the country from the diaspora have also been targeted because of their alleged links to the opposition, with reports suggesting that UK and US residents have been detained.

Ahead of the election, The Independent spoke to three members of the Ugandan diaspora in the UK to hear their views on what has been happening there.  

All three discussed their concerns for the safety of family members in Uganda and therefore wished to remain anonymous, fearing reprisals if their names were published.

Diana, who was born in Uganda but has lived in London for most of her life, says: “I have family there and I fear for their safety a lot of the time.”

She adds that several of her family members have moved in with other relatives this week, after they saw an increased military presence in their neighbourhoods.

Although she thinks Museveni will win in a rigged election, Diana believes this election is different and will be a catalyst for change - if not now, then in the near future.

“I think Bobi Wine has changed the whole narrative of politics in Uganda,” she says.

Dembe would agree with this assessment. “Everyone I talk to [in the diaspora] wants change,” she says, adding that even her mother, who usually stays clear of politics, concurs.

She ascribes the rise of Mr Wine, who was raised in a Kampala slum, to his appeal to young people, who make up the bulk of Uganda’s population, with 80 per cent of the country’s citizens aged under 30.

Like Diana, Dembe thinks the incumbent president will not be deposed by Thursday’s vote but still hopes it will bring a shift in the country’s politics. Global pressure could mean politicians in Mr Museveni’s National Resistance Party (NRM) “grow tired” of him, she adds.

However, Dembe’s immediate concern is for the safety of ordinary Ugandans. She recoils at the violence meted out on innocent people in the past few months, describing it as “barbaric”.

David, another member of the diaspora, takes an equally grim view of what has been taking place in Uganda. “It’s sad what’s happening back in my home country,” he tellsThe Independent.

His thoughts echo the sentiments of human rights organisations and international observers. In a statement released by OHCHR, the UN’s human rights body, earlier this month, a spokesperson said the organisation was “deeply concerned by the deteriorating human rights situation in Uganda”. Elsewhere, Josep Borrell, the high representative of the EU, said: “The excessive use of force by law enforcement and security agencies has seriously tarnished this electoral process.”

Along with an increased interest from global leaders and foreign institutions, David thinks social media is playing a vital role in improving the world’s awareness of the situation in Uganda. Conversely, Mr Museveni sees social media platforms as a threat and recently ordered internet service providers in the country to block all of them. 

David argues that Mr Museveni, like other veteran African leaders, now faces a growing challenge from the younger portion of society. “I can definitely see a shift in terms of involvement and activism from young people. I’ve never seen the youth so involved - especially in the diaspora,” he says of Ugandans. 

This resonates with Mr Wine’s words in the Observer last week that his was a “generational cause”.

Although David acknowledges that some people might be sceptical of Mr Wine’s political credentials and his campaign’s lack of policy detail, he thinks the former singer would try “to heal the country’s wounds” if elected.

Mr Museveni, whose support is strongest in rural communities, is not going to relinquish power easily though. Dressed in military fatigues, he gave a televised address on Tuesday, which included the line: "There is no threat we cannot defeat. We have got all sorts of means, simple and complex."

Whatever happens on Thursday, Diana wants change to come soon. “I know of lots of people in the diaspora who want to move back eventually,” she says, before expressing her hope that they will not have to wait too long.