SNP and Labour even in Scotland, poll suggests

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Andrew Feinberg

White House Correspondent

The SNP and Labour have drawn even in Scotland in Westminster voting, a poll suggests.

A survey by Ipsos for STV spoke to 1,150 people across the country between June 3 and 9 and found both parties level on 36%.

The SNP has dropped three points compared with the firm’s last poll in January, while Labour has increased its vote by 4%.

The Conservatives sit on 13% while the Liberal Democrats and Scottish Greens are on 5% and 3% respectively – with all three dropping a single point since January.

Reform UK has increased its vote by one point to 4%, while Alba remains on 1%.

Every leader in Scotland received a negative net approval rating in the survey, with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar boasting the highest at minus 1% compared with minus 2% for First Minister John Swinney.

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross’s rating was minus 29% – although the question was asked before he announced his intention to stand down.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also proved intensely unpopular with respondents, with 79% reporting they are dissatisfied with his performance, and he achieved a net rating of minus 64%.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer’s rating was minus 12%.

Speaking to the PA news agency, Mr Swinney said he was “encouraged” by the poll.

“This is a very different poll to the ones we’ve seen up until now which I think indicates the SNP is engaging strongly with the public,” he said.

“But we’ve got three more weeks to go, we’ve got a lot to set out to the public before polling day.

“We’ll be doing that because I want people in Scotland to understand that only by having SNP MPs in Westminster will they be protected from the austerity that the Labour Party is now proposing to deliver on the people of our country.”

Scottish Tory chairman Craig Hoy said: “Voters know that in key seats across Scotland it’s a straight fight between the Scottish Conservatives and the SNP – and these battles will be extremely close.

“(SNP Westminster leader) Stephen Flynn has said that every SNP MP elected will double down on their independence obsession, instead of focusing on the people’s priorities – fixing Scotland’s ailing public services and creating good jobs.

“The only way to stop this is to defeat the SNP – and that means voting Scottish Conservative in the seats where only we are capable of beating them.”

Scottish Labour deputy leader Dame Jackie Baillie said the poll shows “more and more Scots” are turning to her party.

But she added: “There are only three weeks until the poll that really matters – polling day.

“On that day, Scots have a choice: risk letting the Tories back in or delivering a Labour government with Scotland at its heart.

“All the Tories have to offer is more chaos and all the SNP have to offer is more division, incompetence and decline.”

Elsewhere, support for independence among the respondents sat at 51% among decided voters, compared with 49% of those opposed.

The poll also suggested a soft vote that could lean heavily to Labour.

Some 55% of respondents said they had definitely decided where their vote will go, but of those who said they had not, 24% said they could move to Labour.

Of those who said they would vote SNP, 64% said they would definitely do so, compared with 55% for Labour and 43% for the Conservatives.

Emily Gray, the managing director of Ipsos in Scotland, said even small moves in vote share could make a “big difference” to the final result given the profile of marginal constituencies, and parties have “a huge amount to play for in the remaining weeks of the campaign”.