Stay up to date with notifications from The Independent

Notifications can be managed in browser preferences.

Opinion poll round-up with two days to go until General Election

Labour’s average poll rating is currently 19 percentage points ahead of the Tories.

Ian Jones
Tuesday 02 July 2024 07:33 EDT
Labour is holding on to its large poll lead over the Conservatives ahead of the General Election on Thursday July 4 (Andrew Matthews/PA)
Labour is holding on to its large poll lead over the Conservatives ahead of the General Election on Thursday July 4 (Andrew Matthews/PA) (PA Archive)

Your support helps us to tell the story

From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.

At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.

The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.

Your support makes all the difference.

Two opinion polls have been published in the last 24 hours, both showing Labour maintaining a large lead over the Conservatives and Reform in third place.

A poll by Savanta, carried out online from June 28-30 among 2,287 UK adults, puts Labour 15 points ahead of the Conservatives.

The figures are Labour 39%, Conservative 24%, Reform 13%, Liberal Democrats 10%, Green 4%, SNP 3% and other parties 7%.

A poll by JL Partners, carried out online from June 28-July 1 among 2,028 adults in Britain, also gives Labour a 15-point lead.

The figures are Labour 39%, Conservative 24%, Reform 16%, Lib Dems 10%, Green 5%, SNP 4%, Plaid Cymru 1% and other parties 1%.

An average of all polls with fieldwork completed during the seven days to July 2 puts Labour on 40%, 19 points ahead of the Conservatives on 21%, followed by Reform on 16%, the Lib Dems on 11% and the Greens on 6%.

The Tories are up slightly on the figures for the previous week while Labour are down, with the averages for the seven days to June 25 being Labour 41%, Conservatives 20%, Reform 16%, Lib Dems 11% and Greens 6%.

On May 22, the day Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called the General Election, the seven-day averages stood at Labour 45%, Conservatives 23%, Reform 11%, Lib Dems 9% and Greens 6%.

The averages have been calculated by the PA news agency and are based on polls published by BMG, Deltapoll, Find Out Now, Focaldata, Ipsos, JL Partners, More In Common, Norstat, Opinium, People Polling, Redfield Wilton, Savanta, Survation, TechneUK, Verian, WeThink, Whitestone and YouGov.

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in