Why Tony Blair fears his grass roots

"Simply the Best Clothing'' it says above a shopfront on one of the tattiest council estates in Lambeth, south London. Behind the glass sits a £35 second-hand sofa, well-worn desks, telephones, and Tony Blair activists.

This the hub of the loyalist New Clause IV Campaign - an "Old Labour'' committee-room setting may be the antithesis of the media glitz surrounding it, but is no less serious for that.

The mission is to persuade constituency parties and branches away from the Pavlovian reaction of nearly always passing resolutions opposed to change.

The "debate'' called for by Mr Blair, almost desultory before Christmas, is now on a war footing and not wholly for reasons he would have liked.

Left-of-centre activists and MPs repeatedly state a string of them: his decision to send his son to a grant-maintained school, the decision to stamp on VAT on private school fees, evasiveness (now sought to be repaired) over reversing rail privatisation,and ambivalence over reinstating Unemployment Benefit instead of the Job Seekers' Allowance.

"We don't have an answer on anything, and people in the party don't have an avenue to say `no' to these things,'' said one MP.

"What is being presented for decision is Clause IV. There is no generalised revolt, but it's certainly acting as a catalyst for much sharper responses.''

The Defend Clause IV campaign is likely to have greatest impact among the party rank and file. The high command is urgently seeking to stave off an embarrassingly large "no'' vote in the constituencies, forcing Mr Blair into the irony of relying on the 70 per cent union vote at the special conference in April.

Recent research, published by Patrick Seyd and Paul Whiteley of Sheffield University in New Statesman and Society, reveals a subtle change in attitudes. In their 1992 national study, 71 per cent of party members backed the nationalisation of companies. But they found that public ownership of the utilities is now the key to attitudes.

Dr Seyd said: "They want the public utilities back in public hands, but not British Airways, nor the motor industry.''

The study found that 85, 74 and 75 per cent respectively wanted water, gas and electricity to be wholly owned by the public sector.

"I think there is no doubt that Blair made a huge blunder in not making a commitment over the railways. Alarm bells began to ring that there was a hidden agenda. So long as party members feel that public ownership is not being eliminated entirely, he wo u ld get the support of a majority of individual members,'' he said.

The leadership is now contemplating a membership ballot to make it harder for activists to mandate delegates to vote to keep the clause at the special conference, but the end result might turn much more on the persuasive skills of Mr Prescott.

As Mr Blair goes about shifting the goal posts, he presides over a party in an increasing state of flux. The leadership elections and the Clause IV debate have seen some Old Labour "soft'' leftists shifting to New Labour Blairism, along even with the occasional "harder'' Old Labour leftist.

Most of the harder Tribunate MPs, however, including Michael Meacher, the transport spokesman, Derek Fatchett, a defence spokesman, and Clare Short, women's spokeswoman, have left the soft-left Tribune group to form what some of them loosely call the "What's Left?'' group.

Others will back Mr Blair to show, whatever else happens, their support for his leadership. For some, the perceived risk of Labour losing the next election transcends all other considerations.

Old Labour could once have been defined as those who opposed the purge of Militant, or later, as those who opposed "one member, one vote''. Will it now cover all those defending Clause IV? With some on the right of the party, including ones backing Mr Blair as leader, lining up to defend Clause IV or limit the changes, not necessarily.

One New Clause IV campaigner said enthusiastically: "We are dealing with a rump of people suffering final withdrawal symptoms, who have not yet come to terms with the fact that we are a social democratic party. They know it's not practical to renationalise water, gas and electricity.''

But that does not accord with the views of a large section of the party grass roots, along with a few in the Shadow Cabinet, who want public ownership to remain a potent symbol of their party's core beliefs. Nor, it seems to a significant extent, does i t match the view of the electorate at large.

A study last year by Seyd & Whiteley found that 39 per cent of Tory grass-roots membership backed public ownership of the water industry and 43 per cent wanted the same for the gas industry.

The History of Clause IV Clause IV Part (4) says: "To secure for the workers by hand or by brain the full fruits of their industry and the most equitable distribution thereof that may be possible upon the basis of the common ownership of the means of production, distribution and exchange and the best obtainable system of popular administration and control of each industry or service."

1918 Sidney Webb writes the clause into the party constitution 1947 Clement Attlee nationalises coal mines 1948 National health Service established 1959 Hugh Gaitskell makes doomed attempt to erase Clause IV 1967 Harold Wilson nationalises steel 1975 Harold Wilson nationalises sections of British motor industry 1988 Roy Hattersley, then deputy leader, presents ill-fated "aims values"

paper, later substantially doctored 1994

February Neil Kinnock, former party leader, urges scrapping of Clause IV in television series; idea is firmly stamped on by then leader John Smith, who says it would split the party July Tony Blair, newly elected leader, says reform of Clause IV is not apriority.

October Mr Blair stuns party conference by announcing intention to rewrite it 1995

13 March Special National Executive committee to examine new draft by Mr Blair and John prescott, deputy leader.

15 March Second special National Executive committee to endorse final version.

29,30 April Special party conference of union delegates and constituencies to vote, in 70-30 per cent proportions, to either replace Clause IV with the new draft, or reject it altogether.

Tomorrow: Donald Macintyre on opinion within the party at Westminster.

Blair and Brown, page 15