Which way will undecided voters swing?

One small piece of, relatively, good news in the latest UK inflation figures is that for the second year in a row, rail fares will not rise as much as they “should” do under the standard industry formula of RPI + 1 per cent. This would have meant another hike for commuters of 10 per cent next year, but the government has said that it will be “less than” that in 2024.

Regulated fares – which cover commuters – rose by a still hefty 5.9 per cent last March. Another rise in that scale would hit commuters, particularly in the southeast, hard – and of course comes on top of the incessant industrial action, overtime bans and the closure of almost every ticket office.

It raises the question of how certain types of issues that have been in the news in parts of, but not all, the country may play out politically when the election comes around next year. Issues such as rail services; sewage discharges into rivers; streams and on the coast; HS2 construction; the location of hotels (and any barges) used to accommodate refugees; and even the felling of much-loved copses of trees may well have a significant impact on certain constituencies, regardless of political swing. After all, all politics is local, as they say.

Which way will the commuter vote go?

It’s quite telling that Ed Davey and the Liberal Democrats are making quite a fuss about the fact that some travellers in the home counties face paying as much as £8,000 for season tickets for the first time next year. The outer reaches of south London, parts of Kent, Hertfordshire and Surrey have been prime liberal territory ever since the earthquake that was the 1962 Orpington by-election. Since then “nice” places such as Sutton & Cheam, Guildford, St Albans, Kingston-upon-Thames, Richmond and Winchester have provided the party with periodic strength, and sometimes on a sustained basis.

For pro-EU/Remainer, “soft Tories” looking for another reason to deflect to the Liberal Democrats but not quite sure about Labour, the soaring cost of getting to and from the capital for work or pleasure is a ready source of grievance. In many marginal seats such as Carshalton, Esher, Wimbledon, Eastbourne and Wokingham the party is the clear challenger, and ought to benefit from tactical voting by Labour supporters. That may well help to nullify any Tory rally prompted by the Ulez expansion.

No wonder, then, that Davey is calling for a freeze on fares, “alongside extra support for all those bearing the brunt of the Conservatives’ economic mismanagement.”

Similar calculations may help the opposition parties in dormitory towns around Manchester and Birmingham. Such effects would tend to magnify any national swing from the Conservatives to Labour and the Lib Dems, as a larger-scale local/regional effect.

But don’t people blame Mick Lynch and the unions?

Some do, but probably the ones who’d vote Tory anyway – and the cuts in services, poor punctuality (not least on the Transpennine Express) and closure of ticket windows are plainly down to government policy. Nationalisation of the few remaining parts of the rail system in private hands is popular, albeit no longer Labour policy (and has actually been enacted, though unwillingly, by the Conservative government).

The sewage hasn’t helped either, has it?

No. The government points out that it’s made major strides in water quality and beach cleanliness in recent years, argues that privatisation has been a success and that Ofwat is getting tough on the water companies – to no avail. The opposition parties have targeted Tory MPs in rural, semi-rural and coastal seats where discharges of effluent have been particularly offensive. It’s an emotive issue and one which is bound to disadvantage Conservative candidates disproportionately in places where things have turned brown and foul.

Labour analysis earlier this year of Environment Agency data, ranked by constituency by the website Top of the Poops, shows that in 2022 raw sewage was discharged into cabinet ministers’ constituencies for 180,759 hours – on average a fresh sewage “dump” every 22 minutes. The Central Devon seat of Mel Stride, the secretary of state for work and pensions, topped the list, with Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire (represented by the chief whip, Simon Hart second, and Sunak third.

Again, there may well be a more pronounced anti-Tory swing in those places, and possibly an uptick in Green Party support.

What might happen in Portland?

And indeed any seats where asylum seekers have been accommodated in hotels, in ex-military camps? On balance probably a net negative for the governing party, but it may well be that people who are concerned or angry about these developments wouldn’t expect much to change under Labour (though Starmer and Yvette Cooper are more trusted to handle the immigration issue, according to opinion polls).

And what about trees?

The arboreal backlash against the felling of precious greenery in Sheffield and Plymouth was mainly directed at their respective local councils and was re-elected in the local election results. That “branch” of politics might not have such an impact come polling day. Or at least that is what the MPs for Plymouth, Moor View (Johnny Mercer, Conservative) and Plymouth, Sutton & Devonport (Luke Pollard, Labour) will be hoping.