UK can avoid second coronavirus peak if social distancing kept in place, government adviser says amid winter warning

The UK can avoid a second coronavirus peak if the correct measures are put in place, the government’s chief scientific officer has said.

Sir Patrick Vallance told MPs that a combination of the ‘right’ level of social distancing and tracing the contacts of those infected with the disease should help the country swerve a second outbreak.

But he warned it would be “extremely difficult'' this winter, when other illnesses such as flu start to circulate again.

Ministers say an army of 18,000 trained staff will be used to alert those who have come into contact with an infected patient.

A new NHS app designed to help trace all those potentially affected has been launched in the Isle of Wight.

Sir Patrick warned MPs on the Commons Health and Social Care Committee that the risk of a second peak was ‘real’.

"I can tell you that a second peak is something that is very real, that you need to watch out for, and you can see it in other countries,” he said.

He added: “I think if we do test, track and tracing well, and we keep the social distancing measures at the right level, we should be able to avoid a second wave.”

But he said: “I want to add one caveat, which is winter. It is going to be extremely difficult when you also have flu circulating and you have all the other respiratory infections.”

Earlier he told MPs that once the current outbreak is under control he would expect contact tracing to do more of the “heavy lifting” than social distancing measures.

Boris Johnson is expected to announce on Thursday that the UK’s current lockdown will be extended.

Just days later, on Sunday, the prime minister is expected to set out a potential roadmap that could see some restrictions lifted, however.

Ministers want to keep the R level of the disease below 1, meaning the number of cases is falling.

Government advisers estimate the current R rate is between 0.6 and 0.9.

Easing lockdown restrictions risk the rate shooting up again, however.

Asked by MPs on the committee if, with hindsight, there was anything he would have changed about the government’s approach to fighting coronavirus, Sir Patrick said: "I think that probably... in the early phases… if we'd managed to ramp testing capacity quicker it would have been beneficial.”

Ministers announced last week that a target of 100,000 tests a day had been met.

The government faced accusations it had fiddled the figures, however, after it emerged some home testing kits were being counted on the day they were sent out, not when they were returned.

During his evidence, Sir Patrick also dashed hopes large numbers of people in the UK will have had the disease and therefore, potentially, have some immunity against it.

He estimated that fewer than one in six people have any sort of antibody protection against Covid-1, as he acknowledged experts are looking at whether rural areas and cities should face different restrictions as the lockdown is eased.

Sir Patrick said from the start of the month suggested around 10 per cent of Londoners could have antibodies, a number that fell to around 3 or 4 per cent in other areas.

He would "not expect to see antibody levels much above mid-teens" in any region of the UK at the moment, he said.