Brexit divisions and leadership plots threaten to overshadow the Tory conference

Loyalty”, it used to be said, “is the Tories’ secret weapon”. A long time ago, maybe, but this year the party’s conference will be marked by open splits and divisions. There are two key battlegrounds, intimately connected: Brexit and the leadership.

Brexit will dominate everything, fairly obviously. The battle lines will be drawn first in the TV studios on Sunday. The prime minister will be on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show; ex-Brexit secretary David Davis will be interviewed for Sky by Sophy Ridge. News clips of them contradicting each other will set the template for the next few days.

Still, Theresa May goes into conference in about as strong a position as she can, in the circumstances. Her defiant post-Salzburg speech last week, demanding the EU “respect” Britain and reviving the slogan “no deal is better than a bad deal” rallied grassroots support for her and her Chequers plan.

Ms May and her loyalists will continue to insist the Chequers plan is the only feasible option on the table. Her many opponents will be vocally disputing this. Among the melee will be found leadership contenders on extended manoeuvres: Jeremy Hunt, Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Amber Rudd, Michael Gove, Sajid Javid, Penny Morduant and Gavin Williamson: all will be maintaining high profiles and transmitting coded messages.

The “chuck Chequers” lobby will be led by Mr Johnson and Mr Rees-Mogg. Mr Johnson’s single appearance will be on Tuesday lunchtime, at a ConservativeHome fringe event. It will make news: but the real question is whether the activists see him, post marital break-up, as too big a risk. A busted flush.

On the other hand, attendees will find it difficult to avoid Mr Rees-Mogg, who is due to address no fewer than seven sessions in three days. Unlikely as it seems, he remains in the ascendant.

Although you might be forgiven for thinking there were no pro-Europeans left in the Conservative Party, former home secretary Ms Rudd will be making the case for a Final Say referendum, as will others, in the Conservatives for a People’s Vote movement, though the meeting has not been listed in the official guides – it will be held on Monday, at 1pm in the Novotel Central.

The leader’s speech remains the highlight of any party conference, even if, as last year, it turns into a farce. For 2018, party chairman Brandon Lewis has been tasked with ensuring the PM doesn’t suffer a coughing fit, that pranksters bearing P45s are absent from the hall and that the backdrop stays in one piece. The fruits of his endeavours will be televised on Wednesday lunchtime.

Cabinet ministers giving apprentice leadership speeches include Mr Hunt and Ms Mordaunt on Sunday afternoon; Mr Gove on Monday afternoon, with non-contender Ruth Davidson shortly after; and Mr Javid showing what he’s made of on Tuesday lunchtime: Grenfell and Windrush are words the Tories might wish to hear less of in future.

The chancellor of the exchequer, Philip Hammond – who no one seems to think is a leadership option – will make his plea for Brexit sanity during the “Economy That Works for Everyone” session on Monday. He will be conscious that, unexpectedly, Labour seems to be making much of the running on eye-catching economic policy. Following him will be Esther McVey, attempting to persuade a sceptical public universal credit will be a success, and compassionate to boot.

Broadly, the odds seem to be stacked against the Conservatives in this conference season in a way that would have seemed impossible two or three years ago, before the EU referendum and the snap election of 2017. Labour demonstrated unity, energy and enthusiasm in Liverpool, with a leader who appeared newly relaxed and confident. The Tory party managers’ main task is to ensure the contrast is not too harshly drawn. They will have a busy week.