Tories set for big gains in local elections
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Your support makes all the difference.News that many Tories are dreading seems to be heading their way. They are likely to win hundreds of extra seats in next month's council elections, so many they will not have an excuse to sack their leader, Iain Duncan Smith.
Labour is expected to lose hundreds of seats, and a dozen councils, in a reaction against huge council tax increases. On what is expected to be a low turnout, they may also be hit by a shortage of volunteers to get their vote out, as activists protest against the war by staying at home.
Labour's losses are expected to benefit nearly every other party in Britain, but with most gains going to the Tories, who could become the biggest party in English local government for the first time since the 1980s. The only people not predicting large-scale Tory gains, seemingly, are in Conservative Central Office. Officials produced statistical data to demonstrate that the number of seats they will gain is likely to be fewer than 100, and could be as low as 30.
That outcome probably would put Mr Duncan Smith's position in danger, because MPs in marginal Tory seats, and others who never liked him in the first place, would say he cannot deliver victory and should be replaced by someone who can.
The Central Office calculation was made by analysing the results of all council by-elections since May 2002 and assuming that the same voting pattern will be repeated in May. The motive for lowering expectations ahead of the elections is to make the results look good on the night.
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