Tony Blair warns Britain’s ageing population will lead to higher taxes and poor outcomes

Britain’s ageing population, rising long-term sickness and “deep structural health problems” will lead to a “triple whammy” of high taxes, debt and poor outcomes, Sir Tony Blair has warned.

The former prime minister is set to warn that, unless the country improves growth and productivity and drive value and efficiency through public spending, it will become "much poorer".

During a speech at the Tony Blair Institute's (TBI) Future of Britain conference in London on Tuesday, he will set out how a package of measures including private and public sector adoption of artificial intelligence, preventative healthcare, digital ID and embracing technology in education could boost growth and generate savings.

And, despite the gloomy warning, Sir Tony will add: “I don’t think there has ever been a better time to govern.

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“A better time to effect change. A better basis for optimism and a surer reason for hope.

“But only if we understand how the world is changing and how we use that change to change our country.”

It came as Sir Tony warned that politics around the world is “splintering”, with the rise of the far right and far left in France and Donald Trump’s takeover of the US Republican Party.

The former prime minister said western politics is facing the challenge of turmoil within political parties, including the Republicans and increasingly the Democrats under Joe Biden.

And he said political systems are under threat from “new entrants”, adding that “the main parties there are parties that weren’t really in existence a few years ago”.

“So now there is a huge splintering,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme. Sir Tony added: “But the question the whole time is, which is why I said it is so important to put policy first and politics second, what are the answers?”

He said France’s Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who led the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance to secure the most seats in Sunday’s French parliamentary election, “has got no answers”. And he said the same of the far right group led by Marine Le Pen, stressing that “the centre is the place you are most likely to get solutions rather than anger”.

Sir Tony was asked about the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK in Thursday’s general election, as well as a series of pro-Gaza candidates who challenged Labour and Tory MPs and found success in heavily Muslim areas.

He said it was something that needed to be looked at “in depth” as the fallout of the election is analysed.

The interview came as Sir Tony prepared to set out the dire state of the Labour government’s inheritance from the Conservatives.

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Asked about the warnings just days after Sir Keir Starmer took power, Sir Tony said: “This is its inheritance, and the question is, how does it change it?”

Sir Tony was also pressed on the suggestion by the TBI’s chief economist that Labour will have to raise more than £50bn in taxes if he does not radically boost productivity. “We are not saying Labour is planning this, we are saying the inheritance Labour has got means that it has to take avoiding action,” he added.

And Sir Tony attacked the lack of discussion about AI during the general election campaign, saying “this, whether we embrace it or not, will determine the future of Britain”.

He said: “How many days did we spend on Rishi Sunak and his wet suit, and then how many days did we spend on D-Day and him missing that ceremony and then how many days did we spend on betting?

“In the end, none of those things are going to determine the future of the country.”