Will Theresa May be ousted as Tory leader after her local elections disaster?

It will be déjà vu for angry Conservative MPs when they gather to contemplate the immoveable object that is Theresa May, after the pain of meeting the irresistible force of the voters.

Less than two weeks ago, the party gave their prime minister an instruction – set a departure day and make it soon – which she promptly ignored.

On Tuesday, that process of unsubtle persuasion will start again, but in the light of a local elections massacre on a scale unseen this century and some fruity heckling. Can it produce a different result?

There is no doubt that the danger is growing for Ms May, after multiple political failures that would have swept any previous incumbent from No 10 long before now.

Previously loyal Tory MPs are adding to the clamour for a resignation within weeks, rather than after a Brexit deal is passed – if it ever is – as she desperately hopes.

No 10 is frantically talking up the prospects for an agreement with Labour, but the chances of Jeremy Corbyn signing up remain slim, with more than 100 of his MPs opposed without a Final Say referendum.

It means the stalemate is likely to continue, as Ms May prepares to meet Graham Brady, the head of the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers, as early as Tuesday.

Under the current rules, she cannot be challenged in a fresh vote of no confidence until December, a full 12 months after she saw off the last attempt to topple her.

Last month, the 1922 decided against a rule change to accelerate a fresh challenge – but it appears opinion is shifting. One executive member has told colleagues he has changed his mind.

The prime minister will be given another opportunity to set out the “clear roadmap forward” that she refused to give last time, in a mood that is darkening.

The answer could be delayed until after the European elections on 23 May – which threaten an even more disastrous defeat at the hands of Nigel Farage – but will surely have to be given.

If the prime minister still refuses to go by the summer, a rewriting of the rules to force her out becomes ever more inevitable.