Theresa May will 'live with' Lords defeat on Brexit bill without changing course, says cabinet minister

A cabinet minister has said the government will “live with” a defeat in the House of Lords, which will force a change to its critical piece of Brexit legislation.

The senior Conservative figure told The Independent the Lords proposal aiming to force the prime minister to rethink her position on an EU customs union, will not dramatically alter the government’s course.

While the minister said talks would go on with peers to try and avert a defeat on the amendment to the EU (Withdrawal) Bill , the government has resigned itself to losing a vote on Wednesday afternoon.

It comes as whips in the Commons continue negotiations with rebel Tories in the Commons who are also pushing Theresa May to change her position on customs unions and the single market.

The PM is currently determined to leave both, but the Lords amendment would push her to come to an arrangement which “enables the United Kingdom to continue participating in a customs union with the European Union”.

The cabinet minister told The Independent: “There are conversations constantly going on to find a way forward, and there will be right up until the vote.

“The government has moved a long way to accommodate concerns and improve the bill since it was first tabled so there is not a ‘war’ going on over it, as some might have you believe.

“The language of this amendment is not strictly prescriptive and if, in this instance, it passes, I think we can probably live with it.”

The minister suggested that it would not necessarily change the end state of negotiations if it was passed, or mean that that the government would have to dramatically change its course beforehand.

The view has been backed by a former minister and Tory brexiteer MP, David Jones, who claimed the amendment “will generate lots of smoke but not much fire”.

He added: “We must leave the customs union in order to negotiate trade deals…and this amendment would not stop that. It merely asks the government to make a statement on its policy, which, since the policy is well known and very clear, can be easily done.”

Beating the government in the Lords is far easier because Conservative peers are in a minority, and even some of those are pledged to vote against Ms May’s approach to Brexit.

Among those backing the Lords amendment is former Tory cabinet minister Lord Patten, crossbencher Lord Kerr, who helped author Article 50, Labour frontbencher Baroness Hayter and Lib Dem Baroness Ludford.

But while the defeat in the upper house may not change the government’s course, it could alter the dynamic of what happens later on in the Commons – where Tory rebel MPs led by Anna Soubry and Ken Clarke have also tabled amendments to two further pieces of Brexit legislation relating to Ms May’s approach to customs unions after Brexit.

The next stage of the Trade Bill in the Commons has been delayed until after April because whips are unsure they can defeat Ms Soubry’s amendment, which contains slightly stronger language on keeping the UK in “a” customs union with the EU.

The unnamed cabinet minister suggested the government had not decided whether to try and overturn the Lords amendment to the EU (Withdrawal) Bill when it comes back to the Commons, indicating they may use retaining it as part of a case to refuse accepting the stronger Soubry amendment to the Trade Bill.

For their part, Tory rebels have also tabled a much stronger amendment to a third piece of Brexit legislation, the Taxation (Cross Border Trade) Bill, which specifically aims to keep the UK in “the” existing customs union with the EU.

Another government minister said: “We are going out of our way to accommodate concerns on this, and I think in both the Lords and Commons, sensible people are beginning to appreciate that.”