Can the talks between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn be successful?

Every few weeks a rumour spreads that a lectern has been put out in Downing Street, with journalists fretting it means an election is nigh and that the madness is about to get even madder.

Until now, these fears have been unfounded and the lectern has instead seen Theresa May give one statement blaming MPs for the fiasco of Brexit and another calling on Jeremy Corbyn for talks to solve the same fiasco.

But having spent the best part of two years attacking Corbyn as incompetent, dangerous and unpatriotic, why is she now so desperate for his support?

The official line is that the prime minister is putting the interests of the country first, which in her mind means delivering Brexit.

The problem is Labour is likely to ask for either a customs union, a referendum or both, and Ms May is not ready to agree to any of those, raising a question as to the whole point of the exercise.

The answer is that May’s policy has failed – failed to carry her governing majority and failed to attract enough support from any other group of MPs.

Without something done it would sink without a trace, taking the PM and even the whole of Brexit with it.

So bringing Corbyn in gives her deal and her premiership a reason to exist again, albeit for a few days.

She must go to the European Council next week and secure an extension to the Article 50 period, and being able to point back to her talks with Labour – something the EU has encouraged – gives her more solid ground from which to make a request.

The other advantage of the talks is to do with blame, something we know Team May is concerned with given that first statement she made from the lectern.

With local elections then the potential for a general election and European parliament votes, the Conservatives need to have a reason Brexit failed other than their own leader’s failed policy.

So if the talks collapse, May will say the reason they did, and indeed the reason the whole of Brexit has not been delivered, is because Corbyn refused to do a deal.

Which brings us to May’s final reason for the talks, which is that she does not believe her policy has yet failed for the final time.

Bringing Corbyn in allowed her to take control of the parliamentary process. It will, once the two fail to strike a deal, lead to a series of votes in which the prime minister will place her own thrice-defeated withdrawal agreement as an option.

By this time it will be a choice between that and a very long Brexit extension and/or a customs union, which will mean those Brexiteers who have held out until now may feel have they must finally back it.

If you doubt this as the dominant motive, just listen to any speech May has given and you will undoubtedly hear her say that she believes her deal is the only and best option. She hasn’t changed her mind.

There are also some minor benefits for Corbyn in taking part – he gets to look statesmanlike while the whole thing makes May look weak, like she needs Corbyn.

But the truth is that Corbyn cannot say no. If he did May would credibly, albeit unfairly, blame him for the failure to deliver Brexit.

The problem for Corbyn is that if the talks are successful, he will be reviled by the two thirds of Labour voters who backed Remain for helping deliver a Tory Brexit.

If they fail and Corbyn takes the blame, the third of his voters who backed Leave will see him as that north London MP who refused to let Britain break free.

The survival of Labour’s electoral coalition of Remainers and Leavers depends on May either doing Brexit on her own or failing to do it on her own, then allowing Corbyn to come in as the change candidate that the country may be desperate for.

So while Ms May is likely to be hoping to use the failure of the talks as a route to delivering her deal, the best outcome for the Labour leader is also for the talks to fail, but for the Tories to take the blame.

On the face of it, the government of national unity approach is appealing. In these confused times, the thinking goes, can we not just all work together for a better future? The answer, however, is no.

That is the reason that journalists dreading late nights covering an intense election cannot yet rest easy.

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