UK on course to be ‘poorer than Poland’ by 2030, claims Labour

Britons are on course to become poorer than people in Poland, Hungary and Romania, Sir Keir Starmer will claim as he sets out his plans for a Labour government to boost economic growth.

The Labour leader will use a speech on Monday morning to set out how his economic vision is the “only show in town” to lead the UK out of the Conservatives’ “low wage, high tax, doom-loop”.

According to Labour analysis of World Bank data, the wealth prospects in Britain are set to be surpassed within the next 20 years by eastern European rivals.

The party’s calculations of Britain’s wealth decline were based on assuming UK gross domestic product (GDP) per capita continues to grow at a similar rate of 0.5 per cent in real terms as it did between 2010 and 2021.

That compares with 3.6 per cent for Poland, 3 per cent for Hungary and 3.8 per cent for Romania in the same timeframe.

Should that trajectory be sustained, Labour said it would mean the average Briton would be poorer than their Polish counterpart by 2030, and less well-off than those residing in Romania and Hungary by 2040.

Sir Keir’s speech in central London is set to expand on his unveiling of five “missions” his party will focus on if it wins the next general election. He will warn that Britain is at risk of a “brain drain”.

The opposition leader, according to a pre-briefed extract of his speech, is set to say: “We need to be frank about the path of decline the Tories have set our country on.

“The British people are falling behind while our European neighbours get richer, in the east as well as in countries like France and Germany.

“I’m not comfortable with that; not comfortable with a trajectory that will soon see Britain overtaken by Poland. Nor am I prepared to accept what the consequences of this failure would mean.”

He is set to add: “I don’t want a Britain where young people, in our great towns and cities, are left with no option but to get out. A brain drain, not just to London or Edinburgh, but to Lyon, Munich and Warsaw. That’s not the future our country deserves.”

Sir Keir pledged to secure the highest sustained growth in the G7, along with providing productivity growth in every part of the country. He is expected to tell voters on Monday they should “judge me on whether you feel better-off after five years of a Labour government”.

Labour said the party’s leader will pledge to “unlock the potential of every region and every nation” if he enters No 10 after the next election, which is expected in 2024.

Officials briefed that Sir Keir will lay out how higher growth will be passed on to families under his proposals. A paper set to be published ahead of the speech says that having the highest sustained growth in the G7 would mean income growing faster, people having more savings, new jobs and vibrant high streets.

After the speech, the leader and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves will host a roundtable of business leaders. It comes as Lord Sainsbury revealed that he had made a £2m donation to Labour, his first multimillion pound gift to the party since 2016.

Speaking ahead of Sir Keir’s speech, John Allan, Tesco chairman, said many businesses “will welcome Labour’s commitment to achieving sustained economic growth”, adding: “Now we need to work together to create a detailed plan so that, if Labour form the next government, they can hit the ground running on day one.”

Tory chairman Greg Hands claimed that Labour’s plan for government included £90bn of “unfunded spending”.

He said: “The last time Labour left office, there was no money left, debt was spiralling, and unemployment soared, something the British people will never forget. Everyone already knows what Labour would do to the economy – with £90bn of unfunded spending, that would just lead to endless borrowing and higher debt.”