Does the latest polling mean the SNP faces being wiped out?

The latest polling by YouGov shows that the gap between the Scottish National Party and Labour north of the border has decreased significantly since the last exercise in April, ie before the surprise resignation of Nicola Sturgeon and the disarray that followed.

In terms of voting intention for MPs at a Westminster general election, the SNP is still ahead of Labour – but by only four points, at 36 per cent to 32 per cent. This represents the lowest vote share for the SNP since 2018, while for Labour it is the best result since the 2014 independence referendum.

In the poll four months ago, the SNP had a nine-point lead over Labour, at 37 per cent to 28 per cent.

Keir Starmer has hailed the result, which is in line with polling trends generally, as proving that “the age of SNP dominance is over” in Scotland. Such a turnaround in fortunes would see many more Labour MPs coming south to Westminster – against just the one as things stand. It could make a substantial difference to the chances of a Labour government if the next election proves tighter than currently expected.

Is Starmer right? Is the era of SNP dominance over?

For now, yes – but the SNP remains a formidable force, and arguably should have fallen far further in the polls given the mess it is in. In other words, it still seems to command a solid one-third or more of the Scottish vote, albeit down from the unnatural majorities and indeed dominance it took for granted before. As things stand, the SNP will certainly lose ground at Westminster next time, along with its current tally of 48 out of the 59 seats available at the last general election.

At a guess it could lose 22 seats to Labour, with perhaps one or two more falling to the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. Aside from the blow to morale, in such circumstances the SNP would probably lose its “third party” status in the Commons, and thus an automatic turn at Prime Minister’s Questions and its current share of Commons committee chairs and participation.

Why has the SNP’s support collapsed?

“Collapsed” is a strong word, but compared with the position the party was in even at this time last year, not to mention at the last elections for the Scottish parliament in 2021, it is a shadow of its former self. Back then, Sturgeon scored 48 per cent of the vote, far ahead of both the Conservatives and Labour, the two main unionist parties, which were handily divided on about 22 per cent each.

Now things are different, and a string of scandals, controversies and failures have done much to hammer the SNP. By far the most significant were the divisions that flared up during the party’s acrimonious leadership election last year. At that point, the ratings for both Sturgeon and her party had been slipping, but she was still lauded as a kind of tartan colossus. Then came the police raid on her house, and the stories about money, missing members and motorhomes, as well as the arrests of people around her and at the top of the party, including her husband Peter Murrell.

Sniping from Alex Salmond’s Alba Party – which commands sympathy in some SNP circles, being more impatient for independence – has been an irritant rather than a mortal threat.

The SNP has been in government since 2007, and Sturgeon since 2014, and the amazing thing is that it has taken so long for each of them to suffer the inevitable unpopularity of long-serving governments. Now they have, and on a previously unthinkable scale.

Policy controversies and failures sparked incessant national and intraparty disputes on a variety of issues: the Gender Recognition Bill; a costly and way overdue project to build new ferries for the Western Isles; an unworkable deposit return scheme for drinks bottles; the future of North Sea oil drilling; the quasi-coalition Bute House agreement with the Scottish Greens; and, overarching all, frustrations about securing a second referendum on independence.

In short, all the old strengths of the Sturgeon regime that were so well displayed during the pandemic – discipline, clarity and leadership – have evaporated, along with her reputation. Any future court action would surely drive confidence in the party still lower.

How well is Labour going to do?

Starmer is not going to get Labour back to the good old days. At the October 1974 general election, for example – a good one for Labour and the SNP – Labour won 41 of the 71 seats available, and the SNP got 11, a decent tally in those times.

In the wipeout in 2015, after the 2014 independence referendum and a Tory government had stoked up nationalism, Labour was down to just one constituency (in Edinburgh). It gained six in 2017 under Jeremy Corbyn, but is now back to having a single Scottish MP.

Now, a perfect combination of SNP and Tory unpopularity, with a boost from both anti-Tory and pro-union tactical voting, should see Labour gain at least 20 to 30 seats at the Westminster election, even if the SNP still leads on votes and possibly seats. Many of the old strongholds in the central belt should return to Labour relatively easily.

When will we know what the voters think?

Real votes in real ballot boxes are on the way. The Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election will tell us a great deal. It’s been triggered by the suspension from the Commons of Margaret Ferrier for breaking lockdown rules, and a subsequent recall petition. The seat, southeast of Glasgow, is a perfect test of Labour’s revival, and of the leadership of the Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar.

Historically, it was one of those places where they weighed rather than counted the Labour vote, but in recent times it’s been a classic marginal, changing hands in 2015, 2017 and 2019. Labour needs a swing of only about 5 per cent, but the interest will be in how well it fares, how badly the SNP performs, and how the SNP’s tactic of painting Labour as a “me too” Tory party is working.

The by-election will probably be held in October or early November, and, with Ferrier not standing, will be a fairly pure measure of the state of the parties.

Has the SNP any hope?

Yes. Although he doesn’t enjoy the kind of support – indeed, cult status – that Sturgeon and her predecessor Salmond enjoyed in their pomp, and despite his having a somewhat underwhelming personality, Humza Yousaf’s personal ratings have improved in recent weeks, and he seems to have escaped most of the contumely thrown at the leader who preceded him.

He has managed to just about stabilise the party’s position on an independence referendum at a recent special conference, and is gradually trying to bury the more contentious parts of his “inheritance”. Most recently, he seems to have headed off an internal revolt against the pact with the Greens.

A very heavy defeat at Rutherglen, though, would prompt more talk about the leadership, and whether the party was right to choose the “continuation” candidate Yousaf, and to reject Kate Forbes and Ash Regan, each of whom signalled a change of direction.