Stay up to date with notifications from The Independent

Notifications can be managed in browser preferences.

Bombshell poll shows Rishi Sunak on course to hold just 80 Tory seats

Rishi Sunak is on course to lose more than three quarters of the Tories’ seats, the survey of 18,000 voters suggests

Archie Mitchell
Wednesday 14 February 2024 15:14 EST
Comments
Ignore poll predicting huge Tory wipeout, says Keir Starmer

Your support helps us to tell the story

From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.

At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.

The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.

Your support makes all the difference.

The Tories are facing an electoral wipeout that would leave them with just 80 seats, the lowest ever total for the Conservative Party, a bombshell new poll shows.

Rishi Sunak is on course to lose more than three quarters of the Tories’ seats, the survey of 18,000 voters suggests.

As well as spelling near-wipeout for the Conservatives, the shock poll shows seventeen ministers are set to lose their seats, including Jeremy Hunt, Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan and Mel Stride.

Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer will face off at a general election this year
Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer will face off at a general election this year (PA Wire)

The poll, by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus, showed Sir Keir Starmer on course to win an even bigger landslide than Sir Tony Blair in 1997, with a majority of 254.

And the survey, reported by The Daily Mirror, showed Labour’s support among voters at 42 per cent, with a 20-point lead over the Tories on 20 per cent.

The survey was conducted using the MRP (multilevel regression and poststratification) method that successfully forecast the 2017 and 2019 elections.

It found voters top concerns were health, the economy and immigration, while the most popular policies included building more homes and nationalising utility firms.

In total, Labour would win 452 seats, 249 more than currently, with the Conservatives losing 285 seats to hold just 80.

The Liberal Democrats and Green Party are also set to make gains, while the poll suggested the SNP could lose eight seats to a resurgent Scottish Labour.

The poll will offer some much-needed comfort for Sir Keir after he faced two of the most difficult weeks of his leadership of the Labour Party so far.

He has been dogged by claims that he flip-flops on key decisions after the fudged announcement that he was dropping Labour’s key £28bn per year green spending pledge.

Labour instead replaced the measure with plans to spend £23.7 billion over the course of the next parliament.

He has also been rocked by an antisemitism scandal after Rochdale by-election candidate Azhar Ali was recorded making antisemitic remarks.

After some of Mr Ali’s remarks, claiming Israel had allowed the October 7 Hamas terror attacks to go ahead, Sir Keir sought to stand by the Labour candidate.

But, after facing a media storm, and further remarks being made public, Sir Keir dropped his support for Mr Ali.

Another Labour candidate was then accused of antisemitism for being recorded at the same meeting appearing to refer to “f***ing Israel” and appeared to say that Britons who volunteer to fight for the Israel Defense Forces “should be locked up”.

It all came as a separate poll by Savanta showed Labour’s lead over the Tories falling to its lowest since last June.

Join our commenting forum

Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies

Comments

Thank you for registering

Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged inPlease refresh your browser to be logged in