Sunak warns of ‘tough’ by-election battles as Tories try to escape ‘long Boris’

Rishi Sunak has warned Tory MPs of a "tough battle" ahead in Thursday's triple by-election, as the party seeks to blame ‘long Boris’ for its woes.

Government and opposition frontbenchers are braced for possible reshuffles within days after what could be a triple by-election defeat, as one Conservative MP said he had “not a cat in hell’s chance” of keeping his seat on current polling.

Sources said the prime minister told a meeting of the 1922 Committee on Thursday that governing parties rarely win by-elections but urged the MPs to unite in the face of any defeat as he pledged to “throw everything” at winning the next election.

Mr Sunak is understood to have told his MPs: “In the coming months, I am going to set out more of what I would do if I had a full term. I was recently described as a full spectrum modern Conservative and you are going to see that in the programme I lay out.”

He added: “When we come back in September we have a choice to make, all of us. Do we come together and throw everything at winning the next election or not? I’ve made my choice, I’m all in with you to win.”

Jonathan Gullis, who took his Stoke seat from Labour at the last election, said “no one was blind” to the fact by-elections will be “tough”.

He said he had “not a cat in hell’s chance” of winning his own seat at the next general election unless the party as a whole was doing better.

Speaking later outside the 1922 meeting, Mr Gullis added that the problem is “apathetic Conservative voters” rather than the public’s support for Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer.

Mr Sunak earlier refused to comment on speculation he could clear out underperforming members of his cabinet in the wake of heavy losses.

Craig Mackinlay said Mr Sunak had been plastering over “five big cracks” – a reference to the prime minister’s “five priorities” – and now is the time for some “nice new wallpaper”.

It comes as Conservative MPs blame the hangover effect of Mr Johnson’s behaviour for likely losses in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Somerton and Frome, and Selby and Ainsty.

Pollster and political analyst Lord Hayward told The Independent that the by-elections were “an opportunity for voters to express their disaffection with the events of the past year and a half in particular Partygate, Patterson and all that went with it”.

Steve Brine, chair of parliament’s health and social care committee, has said “long Boris” – the impact of scandals surrounding Mr Johnson – would be responsible for the party’s expected defeat in Uxbridge on Thursday.

Arch-Boris loyalist Nadine Dorries said instead that “long Boris” would see voters punish Tory MPs for “defenestrating” the former prime minister.

“The public gave him a bigger percentage of vote share than Blair in 1997. He was the PM they wanted.

“Conservative MPs defenestrated him and replaced with the PM they wanted.

“Anyone who thought MPs would get away with that and not be punished is deluded.”

But the row over the effects of “long Boris” comes as the party prepares for a bruising night on Thursday.

Former Tory health minister Lord Bethell said on Tuesday he expects the Tories to lose in all three seats.

Labour is hoping to clinch Mr Jonson’s former Uxbridge seat and Selby in North Yorkshire, while the Liberal Democrats are throwing everything at Somerton, vacated by former Tory MP David Warburton after his admission to taking cocaine.

“We’ll lose all three,” one Tory MP told The Independent this week. “Most people are resigned to it. Oddly Uxbridge might be the least bad due to the Ulez issue.”

Meanwhile nuclear minister Andrew Bowie conceded the Tories could lose all three seats. “Of course it’s possible we could lose all three,” he told Times Radio.

He added: “But it’s also possible that we might win all three. I’m an optimist, I’m a Scottish Conservative and Scotland football fan – I have to be an optimist.” Labour last night said it did not comment on reshuffle speculation.

Mr Johnson held London’s Uxbridge constituency with a 7,000 majority when he was prime minister at the last general election in 2019.

Mr Adams secured North Yorkshire’s Selby and Ainsty with a 20,000 majority that night, a similar margin to Mr Warburton’s victory in his Somerset seat.