Tory by-election defeats: John Rentoul answers your questions from Farage’s return to election timeline

Questions abound following a historic Tory by-election trouncing, in which Sir Keir Starmer jubilantly declared Labour was “redrawing the political map”.

The Labour leader said Tory voters were turning to them because they were “fed up with the decline and despairing of the party they used to vote for”.

The Conservatives are now staring down the barrel of an unprecedented wipeout after suffering defeats in two fiercely contested by-elections, with huge majorities disintegrating overnight following a disastrous few years in which the party has seemingly stumbled from one crisis to another.

Unsurprisingly the seismic by-election results have sent shockwaves through the Tory party - and many have questions about what is next for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, the Conservatives and how the results could impact what happens at a looming general election.

That’s not to mention whispers of Nigel Farage’s chance at not only re-joining the Tory party, but leading it.

Here are ten questions from Independent readers following the explosive by-election results – and my answers from the “Ask Me Anything” event.

Q: Will the Tories lurch even further to the right?

PinkoRadical

A: I don’t think so. Remember that Tory MPs decide what names go on the final ballot paper to go to the members. They were stung by Liz Truss and will want to avoid that happening again.

Prof Tim Bale at Queen Mary University of London did look at the ideological balance of Tory MPs in various scenarios of defeat, and it didn’t seem to make much difference how bad that defeat was. So I think Suella Braverman would struggle to win the support of the one-third of Tory MPs she would need to go through to the final two. Kemi Badenoch vs Penny Mordaunt seems more likely at this stage.

Q: Could this be like Canada in 1993?

Billy Greening

A: Most Tory MPs live in fear of the example of the Canadian Conservatives, reduced from governing with a majority to two seats. It could happen here, given the effect of the first-past-the-post voting system in exaggerating swings, and given the amount of time for things to go even more wrong for Rishi Sunak.

But it is unlikely: two seats is a very extreme possibility. But if you imagine that the core Tory vote is 25 per cent, and that is all the party gets in a general election, the Electoral Calculus model suggests it would have 28 seats – overtaken by the Lib Dems on 30.

Q: Do you think that we are seeing the end of the Conservative Party as a major political force?

Itiswhatitisbutitcouldbedifferent

A: Just look at what has happened to the Labour Party in the past 4 years!

After the 2019 election, I didn’t think it was finished, but I thought it would be out of power for another decade. And just look at the challenges facing an incoming Labour government. Is the Labour Party remotely ready for them? I don’t think so. I think the Tories could bounce back quite quickly if they can avoid another trip to fantasy island.

On the other hand, see my answer about the Canadian 1993 scenario. If they end up with fewer seats than the Lib Dems, who knows?

Q: Churchill famously quipped that ‘Clement Atlee was a modest man with a lot to be modest about’. Yet it’s still recognisably Atlee’s Britain that we live in. Does it matter if Keir Starmer is an equally modest man if he rescues the country from its lurch right?

Pendent

A: One of Keir Starmer’s strengths might be that he is not a flamboyant character. “Not flash, just Gordon,” worked for Brown. Attlee was not a hugely popular figure at the time – he has been idolised more since – but he seems to have been regarded as steady, and as a solid representative of Labour values, which is what people wanted in 1945.

Incidentally, I don’t think there is any direct evidence that Churchill ever said that about Attlee (or the line about the empty taxi pulling up in Downing Street and Mr Attlee getting out). He and Attlee had the utmost respect for each other from working together during the war.

Q: How long do you think until Nigel Farage is leader of the Conservative Party?

Zachary Jones

A: Farage will never be leader of the Conservative Party, even if he could be accepted as a member, win selection for a winnable seat and be elected to the House of Commons. Conservative MPs do not like him, for obvious reasons, and they control who goes on the ballot paper for leadership elections.

Q: Do you think the Tories had half an eye on an early election until today, and will they now take us to 2025 until the next election?

Doralora

A: No, I think Rishi Sunak has always aimed for October 2024, but wanted to keep the option open of May/June. I think that option closed a while ago.

Q: We have yet to see the full onslaught of the right wing press and media. Grabbing the zeitgeist could prove tricky against that wall of noise. Thoughts John?

SorrySurrey

A: The right-wing press is not the force it once was. Or, at least, the internet media environment has changed its nature. GB News and Talk TV are players broadly on the right, but not very loyal to the Conservative leadership; Twitter is tilted towards the left. I think the media are surprisingly evenly balanced between Labour and Conservative at the moment.

I did think a January 2025 election was likely, but it would be so unpopular that I’m now coming round to thinking another December election is more likely.

Q: At various points before and since the Tory Conference there have been stories claiming that Sunak plans a final cabinet reshuffle before the election. Is that ever going to happen?

Franklymydear

A: It may happen, although the main purpose of such speculation is to keep ministers in line, in the hope of promotion. Reshuffles rarely make much difference. The Night of the Long Knives weakened Harold Macmillan, and the Restoration of Peter Mandelson strengthened Gordon Brown, but they were unusual.

Q: I wonder what the impact of immigration has been, especially on Dorries’ seat. Do you suspect this sleeping dog is likely to lead to the return of Farage, who could easily wake this up again, potentially leading to an even bigger problem for them than Starmer?

Honjitsumo

A: I think that Labour will find it just as difficult to “stop the boats” as the Conservative government has found it, if Starmer becomes prime minister. But if this gives Farage a platform, that will cause the Tories a problem rather than Labour.

Q: The UK may now be pushed in the right (i.e. centre) direction. Starmer has seen off the loony left and the squabble for right-wing votes in mid-Beds is probably a sign that the right will splinter. The majority don’t want a dystopia where the new Pravda is GB News.

dj55

A: The by-elections have certainly confirmed that Keir Starmer has led the Labour Party in the right direction. He has been greatly under-estimated.

True, the Conservatives have done most of his work for him, but he has taken advantage of their disarray skilfully, and has got rid of most of the impediments to moderate Tory voters coming over to support Labour.

Some of the questions and answers have been edited for this article. You can read the full discussion in the comments section of the original article.

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