Who are the five Reform UK candidates predicted to win their seats?
The shock YouGov poll also predicts the Tories would drop to just 108 seats, losing 257 of the seats they won in 2019
Your support helps us to tell the story
From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.
At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.
The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.
Your support makes all the difference.A number of Reform UK candidates are set to win their seats in the upcoming general election as the Tories faltering campaign grinds on, according to a new shock poll.
In a major boost for party leader Nigel Farage, up to five Reform candidates are predicted to become MPs, according to YouGov’s most recent projection.
The MRP poll also predicts the Tories would drop to just 108 seats, losing 257 of the seats they won in 2019, and Labour would win a huge majority of 425 seats, up by 223.
The Reform candidates predicted to win include leader Nigel Farage, former Tory chair Lee Anderson, Stephen Conlay, Rupert Lowe and Sean Roger Matthews.
Here, The Independent takes a closer look at the Reform UK candidates set to take their seats in the Commons on 5 July.
Stephen Conlay
Stephen Conlay is the Reform candidate in Basildon and Billericay
He is up against the Tory Chairman Richard Holden, who found himself in hot water after being parachuted in the supposed Conservative safe seat by Party chiefs.
Mr Holden, until recently the MP for North West Durham, was the sole candidate presented on what was expected to be a shortlist of three names for the Basildon and Billericay seat.
Mr Conlay, a semi-retired retail and property businessman, vows to “keep local people local”.
In his statement to voters, Mr Conlay adds: “Witnessing the cultural change and substantial immigration over the last 27 years due to the new Labour government’s abolition of the “primary purpose rule” in June 1997 courtesy of Tony Blair.
“The Conservative continued this mass immigration, 5 million legal migrants over the last 5 years alone. Nothing will change under these governments. Just expect more of the same!”
The full list of candidates standing in the Basildon and Billericay constituency can be found here.
Rupert Lowe
Rupert Lowe is a former Brexit Party MEP and Reform UK Business and Agriculture spokesman, running in Great Yarmouth.
Mr Lowe was chairman of Southampton Football Club from 1996 to 2006 and then again from 2008 to 2009, when the company was placed into administration.
He contested the 2024 Kingswood by-election, finishing in third place, surpassing 10 per cent of all votes.
Mr Lowe came under fire for comments made during a 2020 European Parliament debate about climate change.
Speaking about the bushfires in Australia at the time, the former City trader said: “It’s disappointing that climate change has been blamed as the primary cause of these devastating bushfires by both our [European] parliament and other so-called climate experts”.
“The cult of climate change marches on with no definitive evidence to support or deny the factual accuracy of their assertions. Logic suggests that climate change has little to do with this natural catastrophe.”
The full list of candidates standing in the Great Yarmouth constituency can be found here.
Sean Roger Matthews
Sean Roger Matthews is the Reform UK candidate in Louth and Horncastle.
He previously worked for the Metropolitan Police and is a former member of a local Conservative party association.
Mr Matthews said: “Ultimately, the absolute nonsense that the Conservatives have put us through over the last few years by getting rid of PM after PM and finally forcing one upon the nation that no one voted for did it for me.”
He added that the day Sunak became prime minister he joined Reform UK. He is looking to overturn a Conservative majority of 26,000 votes.
He previously ran in East Lindsey local elections in 2023 and 2019. He placed last in both.
The full list of candidates standing in Louth and Horncastle can be found here.
Lee Anderson
Lee Anderson, the Reform UK candidate for Ashfield, defected from the Conservative to Reform during the last parliament after he refused to apologise for comments he made about London Mayor Sadiq Khan
The former Labour councillor turned Tory MP turned Reform MP was Reform’s first parliamentarian.
Mr Anderson came under fire after he claimed that he London mayor Sadiq Khan was under the control of “Islamists” and had “given our capital city away to his mates".
Mr Anderson admitted his remarks were a "little bit clumsy" but refused to apologise, leading to him to lose the Tory whip.
Nigel Farage
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is expected to comfortably win his seat in Clacton.
Mr Farage had kicked off his general election campaign in the seaside town earlier this month, as he promised to be a “bloody nuisance” in Westminster.
He set out his goal for Reform UK to effectively take over the Conservative Party – and potentially put him in No 10 in future.
He recently added he plans to be prime minister in 2029.
The full list of candidates for Clacton can be found here.
Join our commenting forum
Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies
Comments