Why has Boris Johnson’s popularity suddenly plummeted?

Something is happening to public opinion. Labour is closing the gap on the Conservatives, and the prime minister’s ratings have dropped even more sharply. James Johnson, who was Theresa May’s pollster, described it as “a real shift” a week ago, and said: “Going by this week’s focus groups it is the Boris/Rishi self-isolation ping story that’s done it.”

I was surprised, because I thought the U-turn happened – on Sunday morning two weeks ago – before most people even knew about the story. On the day before the stage four lifting of coronavirus restrictions on Monday 19 July, it was reported that Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak would be part of the pilot scheme that would allow them to avoid 10 days’ isolation after they had had a meeting with Sajid Javid, the health secretary, who had tested positive.

Two hours and 38 minutes later, Sunak announced that they would not after all be using the pilot scheme and would go into isolation, while Johnson said it was “important that everybody sticks to the rules”.

Yet it seems that the mere suggestion that they briefly thought about it – later briefing was keen to point out that it was Johnson’s idea, not Sunak’s – was enough to trigger a shift in the public mood.

The average Tory lead in the latest opinion polls from six companies is 5 percentage points, compared with an average of 9 points in the last polls from the same companies carried out before 18 July. That is not a huge change, but it is significant, and the prime minister’s personal ratings have suffered more. His average net approval or favourability went from minus 3 points before that Sunday to minus 11 now. Hence Keir Starmer is closing the gap as preferred prime minister.

The effect on Tory party members was more dramatic. The latest survey by the Conservative Home website, published yesterday, found that Johnson’s net satisfaction had dropped from plus 39 points the previous month to plus 3. The Conservative Home surveys are not weighted to ensure that they are representative, but they are restricted to party members and have a good record of predicting support in leadership elections.

Again, the anecdotal evidence is that the attempt to avoid isolation was decisive in turning members against their leader. Mark Polden, a Tory member who took part in the survey, told me: “It was the isolation dodging that finally did it for me. Boris Johnson was the tool to get Brexit done but he has consistently failed from then on. His handling of Matt Hancock was a farce.”

What is interesting is that it seems as if the doubts about Johnson had been building for some time, and that it was the “isolation dodging” that finally triggered the landslip. The Conservatives have been gradually sinking in the polls since around the start of June, which I assumed was the vaccine effect beginning to wear off. The prime minister’s rating has also been declining since late May.

Polden’s comment suggests other reasons Johnson’s support might have been ebbing. The handling of Hancock’s breach of the rules – another example of “one rule for them and another for everyone else” – was not great, and it was a news story that achieved saturation coverage. In addition, he makes the point that, for many Tories, Johnson was a means to an end, a leader who inspires no great personal loyalty – and who, if he turns out to be no good, will have no reliable support to fall back on.

The other curious feature of polls of the public and of Tory members is the extent to which Johnson takes the blame for the attempt to dodge the rules, while Sunak seems to have got away with it. The chancellor retains a rare positive rating with the public, and a stratospheric one – plus 74 per cent – with Tory members. Only Liz Truss, the international trade secretary, does better, on plus 89 per cent.