Has the government finally learnt not to make pandemic predictions?

Grant Shapps, the transport secretary and one of the cabinet’s better performers during the Covid crisis, could hardly have given a more comprehensive non-answer. Asked by ITV News for advice about summer holiday plans, Mr Shapps stated: “I’m simply not in a position to provide instruction or guidance at this stage as to whether that will be in time for summer or not.” For good measure, Mr Shapps made clear that this applied to international and domestic destinations.

Mr Shapps, like many, has learned the hard way that planning in a pandemic is a risky business. His colleague Matt Hancock, for example, has already booked his summer break in Cornwall, trendily enough, and has spoken optimistically about a “Great British summer”, oblivious to the experience of so many who have found rainy, overcast holidays in overpriced hotels in Britain anything but “great”. There is a reason why people fly off to Florida or the Greek islands.

Even now, for all we know, Boris Johnson, Carrie Symonds and baby Wilfred might be flicking through the brochures, weighing up the options of another controversial trip to Scotland against a warmer welcome in Italy, or maybe they’ll just have to settle for that £15,000 week in Mustique. Even he wouldn’t go for a few days in the Durham countryside. Would he?

Britain’s “first family”, like the cabinet, ought to have the advantage of insider knowledge when planning their vacations. Except, as is evident from their varying and contradictory pronouncements and frequent U-turns, they plainly have little more idea than anyone about how the pandemic will evolve. Hence Mr Shapps’ extreme reticence, presumably born out of bitter experience. He has opened and closed Britain’s borders more often and with less effect than anyone since King Cnut.

Soon, the country is promised another road map out of the lockdown. This will be unwrapped officially on 22 February, and will cover everything from schools to pubs to holidays in the sun. The astonishing success of the British vaccination programme – at last something genuinely world-leading – does make charting the route out of lockdown easier than it otherwise might be. Once again there will be key indicators to watch – the R rate, pressure on the NHS, trends in infection – which will determine the pace of relaxation. Priority will be given to schools above other sectors. The government might revert to its regional tier system, though that was not a complete success last time round. Yet any such roadmap, like every other previous exit strategy can be rendered obsolete by, say, the coronavirus mutating once again out of the reach of the vaccines, or by creeping lockdown fatigue and public disobedience.

Looking ahead, what is also unknown is how bad and how long the recession will be after the current framework of furlough subsidies, “bounceback” loans and Bank of England support for the banks starts to be wound down. That, and in particular the rise in unemployment, will obviously affect households’ income and business and consumer confidence. On 3 March Rishi Sunak will make his best forecasts and announce his next steps, but he will, if he is prudent, be as cautious as Mr Shapps is. Prediction in a pandemic is a mug’s game.