Do the Ukraine call allegations make Trump’s impeachment more likely?

Donald Trump and impeachment. Three words that have been have been seen together in countless news articles over the past couple of years. The ‘i’ word has dogged the president throughout his time in the White House, with an increasing number of Democrats believing his conduct in office is enough to get him removed.

However, the party remains divided. Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the House of Representatives where the process of impeachment would begin, worried that a failure to remove Trump (with the Senate likely to block any such move) could lead to moderate Democrats suffering at the ballot box in a crucial election year in 2020. The party has tried to shift public opinion towards impeachment a number of times, such as having Robert Mueller testify in congress about his report that found instances of possible obstruction of justice by the president, without passing judgement on them. Nothing has had the desired effect.

Jerry Nadler, the Democrat head of the House Judiciary Committee, has opened what he has called an impeachment investigation, with the first public hearing last week. He is clear that he believes the president’s “trashing all the norms which guarantee democratic government [and] aggrandising power to the presidency” means he should be impeached. Trump has denied any unlawful conduct.

So, to the latest chapter in this increasingly complicated story. Reports that Trump had asked Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate claims about Joe Biden, the current Democratic presidential nomination frontrunner, has led to calls from Democrats, including a number of other presidential hopefuls, to up the pressure on impeachment. Over and over in a phone call in July, Trump urged Zelensky to work in tandem with his lawyer Rudy Giuliani. Giuliani and other Trump allies have publicly accused Joe Biden of trying to interfere in the investigation of a Ukrainian gas company, on whose board his son Hunter Biden sat.

There has been mixed reporting on the status of the Ukrainian investigation into the gas company, but Trump has been kicking up a stink about a visit by then-vice president Biden to Ukraine in March 2016, in which he pressed for the firing of the country’s top prosecutor. The US, its allies, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund reportedly all wanted the prosecutor, Viktor Shokin, to go as it was believed he could slow progress on anti-corruption reforms. So far, there has been no suggestion of wrongdoing by the Bidens.

The Trump call in July is reportedly the subject of an intelligence services whistleblower complaint which the White House is refusing to release to congress. It has been suggested that Trump may have threatened to withhold US military aid to Ukraine if his demands were not met, although this has been denied by Trump and the Ukrainian foreign minister who said the aid was not discussed. Trump has not denied discussing Biden on the call.

Presidents have latitude to conduct foreign policy how they see fit, but a number of leading Democrats have said that Trump’s alleged behaviour on the call with President Zelensky could amount to election meddling, and are new grounds for impeachment. It comes as frustrations are building that the White House’s use of executive privilege is stopping the progress of house investigations into the Mueller report and other avenues.

Speaker Pelosi has so far not been moved to change her mind. She told NPR on Friday that the House investigations should run their cause and she still does not support impeachment. She also suggested that new rules be implemented to make the situation clear for the next occupant of the White House.

“I do think that we will have to pass some laws that will have clarity for future presidents. [A] president should be indicted, if he’s committed a wrongdoing – any president. There is nothing anyplace that says the president should not be indicted,” Pelosi said.

However, with Trump set to meet Zelensky on the sidelines of a UN summit this week, the issue of the July call will not be going away. Democrats will have to decide whether they want to proceed with an impeachment vote soon, with party leadership wary of it dragging into an election year and failing, giving Trump momentum before the presidential vote.

The issue of Ukraine may bring things to a head.