Can Donald Trump still run as an insurgent?

This week’s four-day Republican national convention in Charlotte, North Carolina, might be better billed “Meet the Trumps”. As in a first episode of some new Trump-based TV reality show, no less than six Trumps – a solid half of the entire “keynote” speaker line-up – will be related to one another; hardly a showcase for diversity, as many on social media have already noted. Apart from President Donald, who will be speaking on each of the four days, there will be Donald Jr, Melania, Ivanka, Eric and Tiffany. It would be quite a surprise if they said or did anything other than stroke The Donald’s famously fragile, if supersized, ego. It will be a Trump rather than Republican event; most of the party’s other leaders have found better things to do. Some might secretly prefer to endorse Joe Biden.

Apart from that, what may we expect? A speech from Mike Pence, secretary of state Mike Pompeo live from Jerusalem, and a gang of “deplorables”, proud defenders and symbols of the Trump base, including a couple who confronted with firearms some Black Lives Matter protesters. It’ll be provocative.

In terms of messages, it will be negative and name-calling all the way: “Sleepy Joe” and “Nasty Kamala”. He’s supposed to be mentally incapable, and she’s alleged to not even be American at all. The election will, it will be predicted, be stolen by Democrats through the abuse of the mail-in vote (though presumably not if he wins). Trump will pledge to drag everyone through the courts to get the result annulled as a fraud and force a constitutional crisis by making it impossible for the formal electoral college to meet by Monday 14 December (the threat of which is supposed to make his enemies cave). The economy, according to Trump, will end up like Venezuela (he’s already said that). There will be mob rule too under the Democrats. They’ll sell America out to China, and bankrupt the country. It is a predictable litany. For some, with accompanying undertones on race, it will work. Others may be confused by the Trump attack on Biden; is Sleepy Joe some sort of Eisenhower-esque option for a quiet, conventional gradualist presidency – or a dangerous Chavez-style revolutionary?

Trump should, in the usual way of things, get a bounce from all the publicity, wild though some of the antics will prove. The president will be deploying various federal sites as imposing backdrops, including the White House for the first lady. Trump is also exploiting the power to actually do stuff to get headlines (eg the plasma treatment for Covid-19). Between now and November he will enjoy all the advantages of incumbency in seizing the agenda. As a campaigner – rough and with the low cunning of a real estate guy – he should not be underestimated by Democrats, even in this curious crowd-free deracinated political environment. Remember 2016, anyone? As the underdog expect Trump to do what he did to Hilary, and then some.

But there are also disadvantages to incumbency. Try as he will to recapture the MAGA spirit of ‘16, he has actually been running things for the best part of four years, with mixed results. There is only so much you can blame the swamp people for. As a non-politician and insurgent running against a Clinton, he vaguely promised to put “America First”, and he could scornfully rubbish the entire political establishment (both parties). That always goes down well with voters who feel neglected – “ a plague on both your houses”.

Now the plague has landed on the House of Trump, and he has not succeeded in getting a grip on the “China virus”. The economy is melting, and no vaccine from Oxford University can possibly arrive in time to rescue him: turns out Covid-19 wasn’t a hoax after all.

The truth is that the American people met Donald and the rest of the Trumps long ago, and they are (sometimes wearily) familiar with them. Trump’s record in office is there for all to judge. So is the Trump style, and the promise of much more of the same in the second term. Many millions will still vote for him.

It has, though, not met with much enthusiasm beyond the “core vote”. There has no doubt that the Trump base is still loyal. Nothing he says or does appals them. Four years ago it was grabbing women, the Obama birther conspiracy and a war on free trade, the rumours about Russia, and disparaging America’s allies as freeloaders. He was the anti-Obama, and that suited them fine.

Now they are undismayed by the threat of near civil war, the advice to drink bleach and the decision to change American regulations on the water pressure on shower heads. Stormy Daniels, impeachment, the equivocations on race and Black Lives Matter, the administrative chaos, the revelations about his family’s wealth and strange ways – all have come and gone, and the core is still core.

The trouble for Republicans is that it’s becoming obvious that motivating the core vote it is not enough, and the Trump electoral base too narrow to guarantee success. Now Trump is really just another politician, albeit still an unusual one, and he is being judged on traditional criteria of competence, leadership and achievement. The last four years have simply not been impressive enough, politically, strategically or economically, even though Covid has distorted the picture. No one is talking about the wall (well, apart from Steve Bannon’s legal team). Many, or at least enough, Americans have had enough of conflict, and of fire and fury and look favourably upon the coming era of Sleepy Joe. They’d like an end to riots and rows. The years of Clinton, Bush Jr and Obama just don’t seem too bad in retrospect, compared to the unpredictable course of a Trump second term. Even if Sleepy Joe is senescent and Harris is a bit of a liberal, they’ll “settle for Biden”, as it’s trending on Twitter, rather than four more years of trauma under Trump.