What does Trump’s chaotic final month tell us about his plans?

Usually the transition period, the weeks between the election and the inauguration of a new president of the United States, is a quiet affair. As with so much else about the Trump presidency, this time around things are far from normal.  

In recent days, for example, the president has been dishing out sinecure roles on various quangos, commissions and committees to some of his most loyal and partisan associates, including former campaign manager and adviser Kellyanne Conway to serve on the board of visitors to the US Air Force Academy, with which she has no connection. The soon-to-be former secretary for transportation, Elaine Chao will find a berth on the board of trustees of the John F Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts. Matt Schlapp, chair of the American Conservative Union and who believes that the election was stolen, will be joining the Library of Congress Trust Fund Board. Trump is not the first president to discover the joys of his vast powers of patronage, but he is certainly spending a lot of time on them during the twilight of his presidency.  

More high-profile, and rather more serious, has been the record number of executions he has caused to proceed. Again, it is a perfectly legitimate power of the presidency, though the unspoken rule has long been that an outgoing president who has ceded a mandate should allow their successor to take a fresh look at such difficult cases on death row.  

By contrast to the condemned, Trump has also been fewer than most of his predecessors in issuing pardons to former staff charged with serious offences. Again, it is nothing especially new, but the cases, such as of former National Security Adviser Mike Flynn, who pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI.  

His pardons for the Blackwater guards jailed over the killings of 14 Iraqi civilians will also play well with his supporters.

The president has also taken a more or less healthy interest in the Middle East. Like previous incumbents he has used the final months of his term to push forward “a” if not “the” peace process in the region, including the recognition of the state of Israel by United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and, last week, Morocco. These were sponsored by the US and praised by the president’s allies.  

Less constructively the president asked his aides for options to attack Iran and its principal nuclear installations. Reportedly, Trump was dissuaded by his cabinet. Whatever its merits, if an American or Israeli bombing raid had gone ahead it might have provoked more violence in the region, and a wave of terrorism against western interests. On the other hand, Tehran is fully aware that the aim is provocation in order to make it harder for President Biden to restore the Iran Nuclear Deal, and would not react as Trump expects.  

Short of a formal declaration of war, the president still enjoys wide freedom over military action independent of Congress. Legally, he has the same powers on his last day in office as his last to unleash fire and fury on America’s enemies. This includes China, the supposed culprit for Covid. Even so, there is a strange silence on the Trump administration’s response to the recent cyber attack by Russia; President-elect Biden has promised retaliation.  

President Trump is also unusual in being a defeated incumbent apparently immediately determined to make a comeback in four years’ time. Much of what he is doing or thinking of doing now is a matter of political signalling to the “base” who will need mobilising between now and 2024. Hence the execution of criminals, the lashing out at America’s enemies and, of course, the loud and persistent claims of election fraud – unsubstantiated but guaranteed to fire up the Trump fan base.  

Last, Trump has so far resisted the temptation to invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807 and impose martial law in America. There’s still time, though.