What to look out for in tonight’s final presidential debate

Much has been made of the decision to mute the candidates’ microphones for a time during the next televised Trump-Biden debate. Given his urge to interrupt and wisecrack during an opponent’s address (as Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and various Republican runners in the primaries have all found), this is alleged to be a negative for Donald Trump. 

On balance, however, Trump probably has the most to gain from the second, and final, presidential debate of the 2020 contest. With many postal and early ballots cast, only two weeks left and a deficit in national and some swing states, the president has few opportunities left to gain a swift decisive advantage over his opponent. Apparently, Trump favoured pushing the debate back to 29 October, perhaps to give more time for preparation amid a busy schedule of rallies, but he was dissuaded. Even if he won a debate it would be too close to polling day to change many minds that have long since been made up.  

The president and his team have certainly been softening up the US Commission on Presidential Debates, which has been organising these events since 1988. The aim, critics say, is to bully the debate producers into overcompensating in favour of Trump to “disprove” the groundless allegations of partiality now being made. The president’s campaign manager, Bill Stepien, has been outspoken, particularly about the new, albeit limited, power of the commission to mute the microphone: “It is completely unacceptable for anyone to wield such power, and a decision to proceed with that change amounts to turning further editorial control of the debate over to the commission, which has already demonstrated its partiality to Biden.” 

In recent days, Trump has launched a personal attack on Kristen Welker, the NBC journalist unfortunate enough to have to try to moderate the 90-minute encounter. Before accusing her of being a radical Democrat, he had tweeted: “She’s always been terrible & unfair, just like most of the Fake News reporters, but I’ll still play the game.”

The excuses for losing the debate, you might say, are being made early.  

If order can be kept, the debate is scheduled to cover six policy areas, with about a two minute (uninterrupted) statement by each candidate followed by around 11 minutes of “open discussion”, where the microphones will be open for cut and thrust, but “time taken up during any interruptions will be returned to the other candidate”.

The six topics are as follows:

- Fighting Covid-19

- American families

- Race in America

- Climate change

- National security

- Leadership 

Biden will probably enjoy the first section more than the rest; Trump’s strongest suit is probably national security. The others will be more up for grabs, and the debate on race looks likely to provoke the most division, both in the studio and across the nation. Much will depend on how far Trump will push a hard line to energise his “base”, particularly in the swing states, or if he decides to reach out to more moderate voters, especially white women in the suburbs where he is weaker than in 2016.  

Some moments in presidential debates can shift opinion, and it’s possible that some Biden gaffe or an ill-judged defence of his son, Hunter, could hand Trump an easy win, confirming the negative image of the former vice president being pushed by the Trump campaign. If the form book is anything to go by, the final debate will be very similar to the first, a blizzard of insults, half-truths and empty slogans.