As Donald Trump talks about a 2024 presidential run announcement – what now for Republicans?

In my own mind, I’ve already made that decision, so nothing factors in any more,” Donald Trump told New York magazine's Olivia Nuzzi in a recent interview – talking about whether he would run in the 2024 presidential election.

Seemingly unable to keep that particular secret for long, Nuzzi writes later in her piece about the timing of a decision: “‘I would say my big decision will be whether I go before or after,’ he said. ‘You understand what that means?’ His tone was conspiratorial. Was he referring to the midterm elections? He repeated after me: ‘Midterms [November 2022].’ Suddenly, he relaxed, as though my speaking the word had somehow set it free for discussion. ‘Do I go before or after? That will be my big decision,’ he said."

So if that is the case – if we are taking Trump’s statements at face value, and bar the former president changing his mind – then the major question that has surrounded the next presidential election cycle has changed. It is no longer “will Trump run?” but rather, “who will run against him?” (for the Republican presidential nomination).

The current Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, is the person with the means (he has a fundraising warchest) and the rising profile in polls at the moment. Other names being thrown around include former vice-president Mike Pence, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley and the former New Jersey governor Chris Christie. Although Trump would remain the favourite among the GOP against any of them (at least for now), an official announcement from Trump might affect the thinking of anyone else considering running.

Speaking to CNN on Friday, former White House chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, articulated the argument for someone other than Trump to become the Republican nominee for 2024, making clear he would prefer it if Trump did not run.

“There’s a lot of folks that Republicans can vote for that get the same policies and the same sort of willingness to stand up and fight for the middle class that Donald Trump had without the baggage,” Mulvaney said. “I think you get a lot of the benefits without a lot of the drawbacks...”

A recent New York Times/Siena College poll suggested that almost half of those who said they planned to vote in the 2024 Republican presidential primary would back someone other than Trump – with DeSantis more popular among the younger voters asked.

This is the question that will occupy Republicans once the midterms are over – unless Trump announces before that and forces the hand of potential rivals – and it will not be a simple one to answer for a party that needs to ensure it is united around one candidate before the general election in 2024.