Democrats should beware thinking they can distract Trump from his re-election bid

It has been a busy time for Donald Trump, who is obviously quite upset by the Democrats’ attempt to force him from office via impeachment. There have been reports that he is seeking to reduce his team down to a core he can trust.

Paranoia is not a new thing in any political landscape, but Trump has never seemed shy about tweeting whatever theories are running through his head. The New York Times reported over the weekend that as many as 50 career professionals have been told to leave the White House and return to their home agencies and departments. Trump has also brought Hope Hicks and Johnny McEntee back into the fold – they were key personnel during his 2016 campaign.

There is an argument that Trump will find it hard to get his election message out amid all the impeachment fallout and potential new hearings in the House of Representatives. With no real primary challenger either, unlike a packed Democratic Party field, some may suggest Trump will not be in fighting form for the general election. But it is possible to argue the opposite; this retro-fitting to a team more similar to the one around the president in 2016 may actually help his cause. Trump’s presidency may not be the same in the next few months, but this new election effort will reflect his last campaign.

Certainly, Trump knows who he needs to bring to the ballot box, essentially the same voters that came out for him in 2016. The president has not strayed far from what those voters want, or has corrected his course when he has. He will know he has a good chance of keeping his coalition of voters together.

In a bad sign for the Democrats – who need to create a grander coalition of voters than they did in 2016 to try to take back the White House – Republican voters are turning out for Trump even in the party’s virtually non-existent presidential race. Trump received more than 31,000 votes in the Iowa caucus, compared to 25,000 Democrats who turned out during Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign. In New Hampshire, Trump received 129,696 votes – a number that was more than double George W Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign.

Trump’s campaign looks set to ramp up its turnout machinery, tweaking it before November – testing it in an arena where he is essentially guaranteed to win. Whether the numbers we are seeing will be replicated in a general election is open to question, but the Democrats should beware thinking that Trump will have a difficult time getting his message across to where it needs to go.