Are any Conservative MPs going to defect to the Liberal Democrats?

Boris Johnson’s government stands on a knife-edge. Any defections from his party will strip him of his meagre Commons majority, ahead of an autumn of parliamentary warfare over the prospect of a no-deal Brexit.

If you crunch the numbers, they look grim for the government. Theresa May lost her majority during the disastrous snap election in 2017, forcing her to buy the loyalty of the 10 Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) MPs.

But the defections of three Tory MPs – Heidi Allen, Sarah Wollaston and Anna Soubry – to Change UK in February, then Nick Boles’ resignation over Brexit whittled away that tiny margin.

Mr Johnson inherited a majority of four from Theresa May but the recent expulsion of Charlie Elphicke after he was charged with sexual assault, slashed it to two.

The Tories are also braced for the loss in the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election to the Liberal Democrats – cutting the government majority to just one.

This is a problem for Mr Johnson. If he cannot command a majority in the Commons, the new prime minister may find himself unable to pass his Brexit plan or to deliver on his domestic policy agenda.

Plenty of Tories are unhappy about his refusal to rule out a no-deal Brexit and in the autumn they may make themselves known.

Change UK’s spluttering start has dampened the risk of Tory MPs joining their ranks, but unhappy Conservatives are now eyeing the Liberal Democrats as a new home.

Jo Swinson, the newly elected Liberal Democrat leader, has been open about her desire to woo MPs to their cause.

Swinson, a former coalition minister, said she has been holding behind-the-scenes talks with possible Tory splitters, a group which could number up to six MPs.

These could include MPs such as Phillip Lee, the pro-EU Conservative, who said he would spend the summer recess “thinking”, when asked if he would join the Lib Dems.

Lee has already lost a confidence vote from his local party and his support for a Final Say referendum – as championed by The Independent – sets him apart from many colleagues on the Tory benches.

Another potential splitter could be Dominic Grieve, the ex-attorney general, who previously said he would “consult with colleagues” over whether to resign the Tory whip.

Grieve has acted as a ringleader in several Brexit rebellions and says a “substantial” number of Conservatives were opposed to a no-deal Brexit.

Tory whips were put on defection watch for another pro-EU Tory, Guto Bebb, ahead of Swinson’s election. However, he recently announced his intention to stand down at the next election.

Sam Gyimah, who unsuccessfully stood for the Tory leadership, could also be in the frame, although when asked recently he said it was his party that had changed, rather than his politics.

Margot James, who resigned from government to oppose a no-deal Brexit, has also refused to rule out quitting if the party further shifts to the right.

Ultimately, saying you might quit and actually quitting are two very different things. Politics is tribal and those who walk away from their party have to be prepared to find themselves out in the cold.

No matter how bold the predictions, rebellions often fail to materialise, bringing to mind an old joke.

Tory rebels? They don’t.