Who might actually win the Tory leadership contest?

Lost among the tumultuous events of the past week, former immigration minister Robert Jenrick formally launched his campaign bid to lead the mainstream right. Jenrick is up against shadow communities secretary Kemi Badenoch (still the bookies’ favourite), shadow work and pensions secretary Mel Stride, shadow security minister Tom Tugendhat, shadow home secretary James Cleverly, and former home secretary Priti Patel.

In words that any of his rivals might easily have uttered, Jenrick declared: “Trust is hard-fought but easily lost. It can’t be restored overnight. But if the party learns the hard lessons, listens to the country and shows the party has changed … I know we can win again. Not in two terms. Not in a decade. But at the next general election.”

Fair enough, but the latest polling from YouGov highlights just how much Jenrick or any of his rivals will have to do….

It’s fair to say that with riots on the streets there are more pressing concerns, but the broad verdict of the opinion polls is that voters really don’t know much about the six candidates and where they do have an opinion it is overwhelmingly negative.

As far as the public is concerned, it’s easier to identify the principal loser and potential liability. It’s Priti Patel. She has been around for a while in senior roles, and has got herself into a few high-profile scrapes, including operating a parallel foreign policy while on holiday in Israel and being accused of bullying by her most senior civil servant. Plus, she pioneered the doomed Rwanda scheme. A favourite of Boris Johnson, she has by far the highest recognition rating with the voters – but factoring in her personal ratings leaves her on a net score of minus 51 per cent, with only 17 per cent of people having no view on her. The least unpopular is Tugendhat, at minus 11 per cent, but this is a bit meaningless when 64 per cent of the population don’t know who he is. Perhaps surprisingly, Cleverly and Badenoch, big Westminster beasts, have “don’t know” ratings of 45 per cent and 51 per cent respectively.

No. Voters would like a clean break from the immediate Tory past, and the fact that they’re a bit fuzzy on who these people are could allow the candidates to promise a “fresh start”. But they would also tend to get a bit ignored, rather as Keir Starmer did in the early phase of his leadership.

Worryingly for Badenoch, she does markedly badly with Tory voters – dividing them sharply as the most disliked candidate after Patel. Far more liked are Cleverly and Tugendhat. Of course, the more apposite question is which potential leader is more favourably viewed by those who voted Labour, Liberal Democrat and Reform UK. All six score consistently negative ratings, but Tugendhat is unusual in not being disproportionately despised by the voters the Tories will need to win over – though that may be because he’s not properly defined himself (and would be well advised not to if he does get to be leader).

Yes, though the MPs get to choose the final two to be chosen as “acceptable” leaders. Normally, despite some manoeuvrings, the pattern is for the final to feature a candidate of the right, and one from the more centrist One Nation wing. The latest poll, a fortnight ago, put Badenoch first for next leader on 26 per cent, ahead of Jenrick and Tugendhat on 13 per cent each, Cleverly on 9 per cent and Patel on a remarkably meagre 3 per cent. (Suella Braverman got 10 per cent but is not now running.) That shows the contest is fairly open; and that if any of the frontrunners wants to play games in the MP rounds they should try and make sure Patel ends up as their opponent in the final membership round, as she looked very easy to beat there. Putting party before country, though, this very early stage research tentatively suggests Tugendhat is best placed to win back lost voters on the centre and hard right. But there’s a long way to go.