Could this populist Brexiteer Trump fan really be the next London mayor?

Conservative members in London have chosen Susan Hall, a member of the Greater London Assembly (GLA), to be their candidate in the mayoral election in May 2024. She defeated the only other surviving candidate – Moz Hossain KC, a criminal barrister and political newbie – by 57 to 43 per cent in a ballot of about 20,000. Her strongest potential rival, Daniel Korski, had to drop out because of allegations about his personal behaviour.

There was gossip that Hall and Hossain were originally placed on the candidate list by Tory managers to make it more likely that Korski would win. Paul Scully MP for Sutton and Cheam, was kept off the shortlist for the same reason, the rumour goes. In any case, Hall is now the Conservatives’ best hope of pulling off a minor political miracle.

She claims to be the candidate Sadiq Khan fears most. Aside from a pledge to abolish the controversial Ultra Low Emission Zone (Ulez) extension to outer London, she has also promised: “The central part of my campaign will be around policing because people do not feel safe in London and I’ve got lots of policies that will be coming out in order to make people feel safe."

Who is Susan Hall?

It would be unkind to characterise her as a less impressive version of Liz Truss, but she has been similarly endorsed by the new breed of hard-right Tory members who are arguably even more out of touch with the electorate than the party leadership. This may be especially true of progressive and diverse London. Hall ticks all the Tory populist boxes: a Leaver (in a very pro-EU city); fan of Donald Trump; stubborn enthusiast for Trussonomics; regular guest on rightist cult TV stations TalkTV and GB News. Perhaps appropriately in all sorts of ways, she celebrated her candidacy at the Battle of Britain Bunker in Uxbridge, west London. Like the RAF in 1940, she has quite the challenge ahead of her.

What are her qualifications?

She’s a member of the GLA, was elected to Harrow Council in 2006 and went on to lead the council from 2013 to 2014. She owns a hair salon.

What do the polls say?

They are not encouraging. A recent opinion poll by Redfield and Wilton put Khan on 41 per cent with Conservative and Liberal Democrat candidates on 33 per cent and 8 per cent respectively. Zoë Garbett of the Green Party is registering 7 per cent, and Howard Cox, representing Reform UK, is on five per cent.

Though hardly scientific, the bookies make Khan the strong favourite to win a historic third term, at 5 to 1 on, and Hall trailing at 5/1.

Could Susan Hall win?

It is possible, though difficult, to construct a scenario in which she can win. One condition is that the mayoral election takes place as scheduled on 3 May and that no general election is held on the same day, as that would boost Khan on differential turnout from Labour voters.

The second condition is that Jeremy Corbyn decides to run as an independent Labour candidate, rather as Ken Livingstone did in the very first directly-elected contest in 2000. Corbyn could slice sufficient votes off Khan’s support – say, 10 percentage points – and allow Hall to squeak through the middle and win even in an otherwise bad year for the Tories.

Hall is helped by the fact that the “progressive” vote is more splintered (between Labour, possible independent Labour, Lib Dems and Greens) than the populist right (Conservatives and Reform UK). Under the old preferential system of voting, Khan could be confident of picking up most Lib Dem and other second preferences, making victory more certain. However, the Johnson government changed the voting rules for directly-elected mayors a couple of years ago, to the advantage of Conservatives.

What about the Ulez?

It is a hot issue in outer London, as it means motorists with older, more polluting cars have to pay £12.50 every time they hit the road. The policy is understandably less popular in the outer boroughs – Hall’s heartland – because of the greater travel distances and thinner public transport compared to the inner zones that have had the scheme since 2019. Opposition to the expansion is probably Hall’s most effective weapon, if she can motivate voters in boroughs such as Bromley, Hillingdon and Redbridge to get out and vote. Ironically, if the five Tory-controlled outer London boroughs behind a legal challenge to the expansion win their case, it would weaken her electoral appeal.

Are there any precedents?

She might be inspired by Johnson, who took on a seemingly invincible Ken Livingstone in 2008, and won. Then again, Hall is no Boris Johnson; in fact, she’s the least high-profile of all the Tory candidates in London over the years, compared to “Bonking” Steve Norris, Zac Goldsmith, Johnson, and Shaun Bailey. Interestingly, Bailey only lost to Khan by 45 to 55 per cent in 2021 – hardly a landslide.

And the last council elections?

In 2022, all the London boroughs were up for election and Labour scored 42.5 per cent of the vote against 25.8 per cent for the combined Conservative council candidates. At the 2019 general election, the split was 48.1 per cent for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour, and 32 per cent for the Conservatives led by Johnson – in stark contrast to much of the rest of the nation.

That background looks bad for Hall, but it shows that London voters can distinguish between different layers of local and national government. Mayor Khan doesn’t have a huge lead as things stand, and given the state of London’s finances and transport, crime, low traffic neighbourhoods and the Ulez extension, Khan is beatable by the right kind of charismatic, hard-campaigning Tory. Hall has a lot to do.