What are the real figures on police officer recruitment?

Much is made of the government’s claim to have delivered on a manifesto pledge to recruit an additional 20,000 police officers in England and Wales.

Ministers touring broadcast studios often cite the achievement as evidence of the Conservatives’ tough stance on crime.

But Suella Braverman ran into trouble repeating the claim as she touted her announcement that police would be ordered to investigate every theft and follow every “reasonable” lead in solving crime.

On Sky News, Jayne Secker took the home secretary to task over whether her figures stack up.

So how many new police officers has the government actually recruited?

The pledge

Boris Johnson’s Conservative manifesto in 2019 talked up a desire for “everyone to have the fundamental security that comes from safe streets and safe neighbourhoods”.

The former PM pledged, therefore, to put 20,000 more police officers on the beat to “take violent criminals off the streets and protect us and our country”.

The background

However, Mr Johnson’s promise came after George Osborne’s austerity program saw years of cuts to public services, including police.

In fact, between 2010 and 2018 the number of officers fell by 21,363, Home Office figures show.

Did ministers hit the target?

In one way, yes. Home Office figures in April showed 20,951 additional police officers have been hired since the government’s 2019 pledge.

Rishi Sunak at the time said he was “pleased” he had delivered on the 2019 promise.

So what is the problem?

Critics say the recruitment of 20,000 officers is a red herring when taken in the context of a previous fall in numbers.

And many of the police officers leaving forces in recent years had significant experience, and have been replaced by new recruits with much less.

Martyn Underhill, the former Dorset police and crime commissioner, told Sky News on Monday a third of English and Welsh officers have less than five years of experience.

As a result, he said the police force has been “undoubtedly weakened in every way”.

So how many more police officers are there?

Since the 2019 general election, the recruitment of police officers has increased significantly.

So in total, since the Conservatives came to power in 2010, there are more officers on the beat.

But while the number has increased, the 20,000 figure often cited by ministers is somewhat misleading as the net increase since 2010 has been around 3,500.

Independent fact-checking organisation Full Fact also points out that the increase in officers has not kept up with population growth since 2010. Its rough calculations suggest the number of police per capita has decreased from around 1 officer per 381 people in March 2010 to 1 officer per 404 people in March 2023.