How can Keir Starmer control the PR nightmare engulfing Labour?

With his U-turn on the £28bn green prosperity plan and the Labour campaign in the Rochdale by-election cancelled, it’s fair to say the last few days have been difficult for Keir Starmer. The news has been dominated unexpectedly by splits and antisemitism in his own party, and Starmer has found himself out of control of events. 

His oft-repeated claim that the Labour Party has changed under his leadership has been challenged, and his stance on Gaza continues to be a source of resentment among his MPs. Fortunately, Starmer has better prospects to look forward to in the coming days...

On and off for a couple of weeks at least. The vote in Rochdale isn’t until Thursday 29 February, so the bizarre spectacle of the man recently chosen by Labour as its candidate, but now disowned by the party, still running as “Labour” will continue to attract attention and confuse people.

Like it or not, Azhar Ali’s name will appear beside the words “Labour Party” on the ballot paper, and he will attract some votes – possibly enough to win. If that happens, he will be a living embarrassment and a reminder of Labour’s antisemitic traumas until the next general election is called.

If George Galloway or someone else wins, then the effect will be shorter-lived, though events in Rochdale highlight the continuing alienation of some Muslims and leftists from the party because of its official line on a Gaza ceasefire. Rochdale is now a seat in which Labour is damned whatever happens – it literally cannot win.

Yes, there is, and some stories in particular over the next few days should take the heat off Starmer and put it back on Rishi Sunak. Tomorrow sees the latest inflation figures, which may prove a little disappointing, and we will learn whether or not the UK ended the year in recession when those numbers (a first estimate) emerge on Thursday. Neither of the sets of data is likely to be encouraging for the government, and both look set to confirm the picture of an economy struggling to support a rise in living standards and end the cost of living crisis.

It was Sunak who made returning the economy to growth one of his five priorities for 2023, and, even if there has been some notional marginal growth, the news is not going to be particularly joyful. A rise or fall of 0.1 per cent in GDP over a year is negligible. The economy is stagnant, and it feels that way – and it’s not a great start to an election year.

Yes, of course, and they will certainly overshadow everything. The contests in Wellingborough and in Kingswood, near Bristol, are obviously much more representative of the state of national electoral politics than is the Rochdale contest. Still, a few special factors and local issues will apply in each seat.

In Wellingborough, the girlfriend of the previous Tory MP, Peter Bone, is the official Conservative candidate. Bone, an MP since 2005, was driven out of the Commons after allegations about his private life were investigated by a Commons committee. That might not help his party to hang on to the seat. Labour requires a very substantial swing of about 18 per cent to overturn Bone’s 18,540 majority, but recent form and opinion polls suggest that is well within reach.

Kingswood, where the Tory incumbent Chris Skidmore quit over his party’s green policy, is an easier win for Labour: a 10 per cent swing – which is still huge by historical general election standards – will be sufficient. 

It will be a timely reminder that Rochdale is something of a sideshow, and that Gaza isn’t the driving issue in British politics more widely. It will also calm Labour’s nerves. It’s quite possible that the results will be even better for Labour than the party’s spectacular gains in Selby, Mid Bedfordshire, Rutherglen and Tamworth. In that context, Rochdale can be pre-explained away as a bit of a one-off, like when the Tories held on to Uxbridge last year. 

Inevitably, two more disastrous by-elections for the Conservatives will once again raise concerns about Sunak’s leadership, revive the usual questions about his strategy to win the next election, and heighten the chances of some tax cuts and another reset with the 6 March Budget.

These fall uneasily for Starmer, before this week’s by-elections and the new growth figures, and the leader of the opposition will be on the defensive for a change. Sunak will be sure to make the most of the mess, and will hammer the line that Labour hasn’t changed and Starmer has failed to uproot antisemitism. If Starmer is especially unlucky, one of his backbenchers will get up and say something daft, offensive, or both about Gaza. Never underestimate the Labour Party’s ability to pluck defeat from the jaws of victory.