What can be done about the proliferation of knife crime?

It’s fair to say that the recent knife attack at a dance school in Southport, which resulted in so much death and injury to children, has shocked the nation. It also follows a number of other serious, high-profile incidents. All are necessarily sui generis, and under active investigation as to the motives and the events that led up to the killings.

Varied as they are, these cases have served to intensify a widespread public concern about the use of knives in violent crime, especially among younger people, and more often in our bigger cities (though, as Southport shows, this is hardly confined to urban centres).

It is not a new problem – indeed, it is as old as the bladed weapon itself – but it is now becoming a political issue, though the home secretary, Yvette Cooper, has been cautious in her public remarks...

Broadly speaking, yes. The official crime statistics show that the trend is uneven, but broadly upward over time. The pandemic obviously saw a marked decrease in such incidents, and in some other criminal activities, but the number of knife crimes in 2023 was still lower than in the last full year before the pandemic, by about 7 per cent.

On a 10-year view, though, we can see that there were about 28,000 in 2014, a recent nadir, compared with over 50,000 last year. Experts add that, because some knife assaults aren’t reported and thus do not appear in the crime figures, hospital admissions might serve as an additional indicator. There were 3,775 “hospital episodes” involving blades and the like in 2023, around 10 per cent up on 2022, though only a little higher than in 2014.

Yes, and a significant one. In 2022 in England and Wales, there were 261 homicides involving sharp instruments – about 40 per cent of the total. In Scotland, the proportion is higher – with 30 homicide victims (some 58 per cent) having been killed in this way. Such extreme cases are thus rare, but there is the potential for the rate to rise yet higher.

The West Midlands region has the highest rate of knife crime in proportion to its population, at 178 incidents per 100,000 residents, with Cleveland in second place at 159, and then, despite its reputation, Greater London on 145 (with a large variation between the boroughs – from Westminster, with 356 incidents per 100,000 people, to Richmond, with just 47).

In fact, overall knife crime in London is roughly where it was a decade ago, notwithstanding its having been described as an epidemic during the recent mayoral contest – though that could merely be a reflection of the fact that it has always been relatively higher in the capital. North Yorkshire is the area least troubled by knives.

In some areas it is, but it doesn’t lend itself well to ideological solutions. All the political parties advocate strong controls on the sale of knives, and successive governments have targeted specific types of bladed weapon, from flick knives in the 1950s to “zombie” knives now. Carrying an offensive weapon, a catch-all that covers most circumstances, has been an offence since 1953.

The really contentious issue has always been the use of stop and search powers by the police. These have gone in and out of fashion for some time, largely because they became associated with racial profiling, damaging relations between the police and the communities they serve. Custodial sentences for possession have increased markedly in both number and length of term in recent years. The rise of gang culture has been a strong influence.

Quite a lot, if the Labour manifesto is to be believed. Interestingly, Labour’s blueprint for government hints, albeit obliquely, at more active stop and search activities – “We will equip officers with the powers they need” – together with the restoration of community policing. The “knife crime action plan” also aims to ban ninja swords, lethal zombie-style blades and machetes; strengthen rules to prevent online sales; and ensure that “executives of online companies that flout these rules are personally held to account through tough sanctions”.

The government also promises to “intervene earlier to stop young people being drawn into crime”, and, perhaps significantly, the new Young Futures programme will ensure that there are “youth workers, mental health support workers, and careers advisers on hand to support young people’s mental health and avoid them being drawn into crime”. Wider improvements in the criminal justice system and more prison accommodation might also help to deter criminality and get the crime figures down.

It will if it fulfils Labour’s ambitious manifesto promise: “We aim to halve knife crime in a decade.” Note, of course, that this takes us well beyond the end of this parliament, but the public will have a right to expect that the figures are heading sharply downwards by then. What no government can do is prevent a determined terrorist from buying a kitchen knife and going on to commit murder. The only comfort in this context is that the UK doesn’t suffer from the same ease of access to guns as is the case in, say, America.