Who is winning the Scottish leadership race? Not the SNP

It seems much longer than five weeks since Nicola Sturgeon announced her intention to resign as first minister of Scotland and as leader of the Scottish National Party. Since her decision to depart frontline politics, and from a position of relative political strength and stability, the SNP has gone into apparent meltdown. Whoever gets to succeed Sturgeon will have to rebuild the party and the cause of independence as well as govern the country.

How’s the leadership election going?

Badly. Three candidates, Humza Yousaf, Kate Forbes and Ash Regan, have all been colleagues in the SNP and ministers in the devolved administration for some time (though Regan is now a backbencher). However, in their public appearances and televised hustings they have bickered so much that they resemble a triangular firing squad. It’s sometimes said leadership elections are a ‘healing process’ and an opportunity for a party to renew itself. Indeed, Sturgeon, in her final speech as leader this week, said the “fractious” battle is a necessary “moment to change, refresh and renew”. That sounds like spin.

Things have not been helped by the resignation of the SNP chief executive, Peter Murrell. (He happens to be Sturgeon’s husband; though in line with the rules, no one seems to have been too concerned about the appearance of a conflict of interest for many years.) Murrell quit in a row about SNP membership figures, said to be 30,000 short of the 104,000 reported in 2021. (It remains the biggest party in Scotland). Accurate membership stats is a subject Sturgeon might have taken a professional interest in.

An SNP media chief also quit, and the party president Mike Russell, serving as acting chief executive, says the SNP is “basically a good party" but things had gone “spectacularly wrong in recent weeks.”

“I think it is fair to say there is a tremendous mess and we have to clear it up, and that's the task I'm trying to take on in the short term,” he said.

And, of course, crucial debates about the path to independence, gender identity, public services and terms of entry to the EU remain unresolved. Meanwhile, Labour and the Tories have been capitalising on the drama.

Who is going to win?

There is unusual uncertainty about this, amid suspicion the SNP membership rolls might not be up to date. Opinion polls among the general public suggest Forbes is the frontrunner despite being level on around 30 per cent with Yousaf with Regan (10 per cent) among SNP voters. The real winner is “don’t know”, on 40 per cent.

Forbes says the wider public is the key factor because they are the people the SNP needs to convert. True, but the party also needs to hang on to its own voters. Among SNP supporters, Yousaf and Forbes are on around 30 per cent, with Regan on 13 per cent and another substantial chunk of ‘don’t knows’.

But it’s the SNP membership that has the power to decide. They tend to be older and more male than the general populace, but also fairly socially liberal, and of course more committed to independence. The one small-ish (500) poll of SNP members places Yousaf ahead on 31 per cent, with Forbes on 25 per cent and Regan on 11 per cent; however it’s a few weeks old now and it’s difficult to be sure how things might have changed. Interestingly, Regan suggests those SNP members who voted early online should have the option of changing their vote – possibly to thwart Forbes, whose socially conservative views emerged a little after the contest began.

Yousaf may enjoy a modest lead over Forbes on first preferences, but unless he enjoys a knockout on the first preferences of 50 percent plus one or more, then the second preferences of Regan supporters will be thrown into the mix. The last estimate (based on SNP voters) gave Forbes, another “change” candidate, an edge over Yousaf in this group. So it could be close, and controversial. Either way, the winner probably won’t be able to claim an overwhelming mandate.

What’s going to be the strategy to make Scotland an independent nation?

Ironically, the leadership contest won’t actually settle this. A special party conference will decide on whether, for example, the party should hold an unofficial referendum, form a broader alliance with other parties (Alba, Scottish Greens) and civic groups or even make a unilateral Declaration of Independence.

When is it all over?

Despite confusions about the membership numbers, the voting continues until noon on Monday 27 March and the result will be announced later that day. After that: more arguments.