Has Nicola Sturgeon made a mistake by putting a deadline on another Scottish independence referendum?

Nicola Sturgeon’s announcement to the Scottish parliament of her “programme for government” could have enjoyed happier timing.

The day began with one of her own independent economic advisers describing the consequences of Scottish independence as “Brexit x10”. She was then inevitably overshadowed by Boris Johnson’s announcement about a health and social care tax. Johnson clearly enjoyed claiming that there would be a net inflow of funds to Scotland as a result of the fiscal adjustments – a “union dividend”.

Her speech also came after meeting notes from inside No 10 were leaked a few days ago, which said Sturgeon should be “cut out” of the Cop26 climate conference in Glasgow, so she couldn’t steal the limelight. And it was topped off by a contingency plan that emerged, allegedly suggesting moving the UK’s nuclear base out of Scotland to France if Scotland gets independence (depriving the putative nation of a healthy lease payment).

All of this made Sturgeon even more determined to ask, as she did in her speech, whether the momentous decisions facing Scotland post-pandemic will be settled by the parliament at Holyrood or at Westminster.

The Scottish first minister is a careful and calculating character, determined not to jeopardise independence by haste and bad timing. In her speech, she said a referendum would be held by the end of 2023, provided the pandemic had passed. It is broadly in line with her previous statements, including in the election. And now in coalition with pro-independence Scottish Greens, she claims a mandate for such a vote; the Scottish Conservatives insist that she has none as she lacks an overall SNP majority.

But by putting a deadline on a vote, Sturgeon has done two curious things. First, she has declared a target date to deliver something that is not in her gift. Unless the courts do something extraordinary, the decision on whether to grant a referendum in Scotland rests with Boris Johnson, and we know his views on that.

Second, there is no guarantee that the level of popular support for independence will be strong enough to ensure victory in a referendum between now and the end of 2023. In that case, Johnson’s obstinate refusal to honour the will of the Scottish people acts to Sturgeon’s advantage, as it makes him look hostile, even when a referendum might be unwinnable for Sturgeon. Indyref2, in other words, may not happen during the next few years, and that might suit Sturgeon and Johnson equally well.

In her announcement, Sturgeon was also determined to keep her government to its progressive, social democratic instincts, albeit with added Green tinge. In contrast to England, pointedly, there will be an NHS-style National Care Service, enhanced child care, stronger human rights, legislating for zero-emissions in homes and, most controversially, a new Gender Recognition Act in the first year of the administration.

The Sturgeon programme seems to have plenty of purpose and ambition. It remains the case, though, that the biggest decision of all, on nationhood, is out of her hands.